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Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Jun Xia

    (Wuhan University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Like Ning

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Quan Wang

    (Shizuoka University)

  • Junxu Chen

    (Yunnan University)

  • Long Wan

    (Beijing Forestry University)

  • Si Hong

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

This paper quantifies the vulnerability of and risk to water resources (VRWR) under a scenario of climate change in the arid and semi-arid region of West China. A new approach integrating hazard, sensitivity, resilience, exposure and risk is developed to assess the VRWR from climate change. Drought is regarded as the key hazard, with its frequency and severity defined using a surface humidity index. Exposure is quantitatively linked with indicators of population and social and economic characteristics using statistical and Geographical Information System (GIS) methodologies. Risk is defined as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, while vulnerability is treated as a function of sensitivity and adaptation. Vulnerability and risk in the water resources system in the coming 20 years are assessed for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The results reveal that both hazard and exposure of water resources display strong spatial variation in the study area. High hazard and exposure are found in the northern Tianshan Mountain as well as the eastern part of Hexi Corridor. Water resources are particularly sensitive to variation in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the upstream areas of Hexi Corridor, rivers in Central Asia, headwater streams of Tarim River and most of Chang Tang Plateau. Our assessment shows that there is high vulnerability of and risk to water resources in the study area, especially in the areas of Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and Tarim River. Under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario, the vulnerability and risk decline over the entire area but remain at a serious level in inland rivers in Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and headwater streams of Tarim River. Thus, these areas are the highest priority for strengthening policy measures to adapt to climate change and reduce exposure and vulnerability and their risk to water resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun Xia & Like Ning & Quan Wang & Junxu Chen & Long Wan & Si Hong, 2017. "Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 549-563, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1709-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1709-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guangyang Wu & Lanhai Li & Sajjad Ahmad & Xi Chen & Xiangliang Pan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3085-3101, June.
    2. Sven Fuchs & Jörn Birkmann & Thomas Glade, 2012. "Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(3), pages 1969-1975, December.
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    1. Lanzhen Wu & Chen Qian & Yilin Shen & Dongyuan Sun, 2023. "Assessment and Factor Diagnosis of Water Resource Vulnerability in Arid Inland River Basin: A Case Study of Shule River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Entao Yu & Xiaoyan Liu & Jiawei Li & Hui Tao, 2023. "Calibration and Evaluation of the WRF-Hydro Model in Simulating the Streamflow over the Arid Regions of Northwest China: A Case Study in Kaidu River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Yongsheng Wang & Xiao Cui & Xinrong Zhang & Qi Wen, 2022. "Exploring the Sustainable Use Strategy of Scarce Water Resources for Rural Revitalization in Yanchi County from Arid Region of Northwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Huili Chen & Zhongyao Liang & Yong Liu & Qingsong Jiang & Shuguang Xie, 2018. "Effects of drought and flood on crop production in China across 1949–2015: spatial heterogeneity analysis with Bayesian hierarchical modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 525-541, May.
    5. Xiuping Yang & Dacheng Zhang & Qiqi Jia & Wentao Zhang & Tianyou Wang, 2019. "Exploring the Dynamic Coupling Relationship between Agricultural Economy and Agro-Ecological Environment in Semi-Arid Areas: A Case Study of Yulin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, April.
    6. Zong-Liang Yang & Zhuguo Ma, 2017. "Foreword to the special issue: decadal scale drought in arid regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 389-390, October.

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