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Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America

Author

Listed:
  • Verónica Martín-Gómez

    (Universidad de la República)

  • Marcelo Barreiro

    (Universidad de la República)

Abstract

El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Tropical North Atlantic variability (TNA) can influence southeastern South America (SESA) rainfall, particularly during springtime. A recent study has shown that during the last century, there were two synchronization periods (1930s and 1970s) in which different tropical oceans interacted among themselves and, in turn, induced precipitation anomalies over SESA. In this study, we evaluate how this collective influence of the tropical oceans on SESA precipitation observed during the twentieth century, can change in the next century as result of anthropogenic forcing. To do so, we use the output of seven different CMIP5 models and construct a network using as nodes the indices of the Niño3.4, the TNA, the IOD and rainfall over SESA. After evaluating their skill in representing the observed network statistics during the twentieth century, we study changes in the network under RCP4.5 and 8.5 global warming scenarios in the twenty-first century. Focusing on the grand CMIP5 ensemble mean, results suggest that an anthropogenic forcing would increase the number of synchronization periods per century, their time length, and the connectivity between nodes (with the exception of TNA and IOD in RCP8.5). The stronger connectivity of SESA precipitation with the tropical oceans in both scenarios suggest an increase of the oceanic influence on rainfall over SESA as a result of anthropogenic forcing, which would enhance its seasonal predictability. However, these results have to be taken with caution because there is a large disparity in model behavior and thus a large uncertainty in conclusions suggested from the grand ensemble mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Verónica Martín-Gómez & Marcelo Barreiro, 2017. "Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 315-329, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1888-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1888-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Podesta, Guillermo & Letson, David & Messina, Carlos & Royce, Fred & Ferreyra, R. Andres & Jones, James & Hansen, James & Llovet, Ignacio & Grondona, Martin & O'Brien, James J., 2002. "Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 371-392, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bárbara C. Franco & Omar Defeo & Alberto R. Piola & Marcelo Barreiro & Hu Yang & Leonardo Ortega & Ignacio Gianelli & Jorge P. Castello & Carolina Vera & Claudio Buratti & Marcelo Pájaro & Luciano P. , 2020. "Climate change impacts on the atmospheric circulation, ocean, and fisheries in the southwest South Atlantic Ocean: a review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2359-2377, October.

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