IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v141y2017i2d10.1007_s10584-016-1888-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America

Author

Listed:
  • Verónica Martín-Gómez

    (Universidad de la República)

  • Marcelo Barreiro

    (Universidad de la República)

Abstract

El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Tropical North Atlantic variability (TNA) can influence southeastern South America (SESA) rainfall, particularly during springtime. A recent study has shown that during the last century, there were two synchronization periods (1930s and 1970s) in which different tropical oceans interacted among themselves and, in turn, induced precipitation anomalies over SESA. In this study, we evaluate how this collective influence of the tropical oceans on SESA precipitation observed during the twentieth century, can change in the next century as result of anthropogenic forcing. To do so, we use the output of seven different CMIP5 models and construct a network using as nodes the indices of the Niño3.4, the TNA, the IOD and rainfall over SESA. After evaluating their skill in representing the observed network statistics during the twentieth century, we study changes in the network under RCP4.5 and 8.5 global warming scenarios in the twenty-first century. Focusing on the grand CMIP5 ensemble mean, results suggest that an anthropogenic forcing would increase the number of synchronization periods per century, their time length, and the connectivity between nodes (with the exception of TNA and IOD in RCP8.5). The stronger connectivity of SESA precipitation with the tropical oceans in both scenarios suggest an increase of the oceanic influence on rainfall over SESA as a result of anthropogenic forcing, which would enhance its seasonal predictability. However, these results have to be taken with caution because there is a large disparity in model behavior and thus a large uncertainty in conclusions suggested from the grand ensemble mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Verónica Martín-Gómez & Marcelo Barreiro, 2017. "Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 315-329, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1888-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1888-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1888-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-016-1888-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Podesta, Guillermo & Letson, David & Messina, Carlos & Royce, Fred & Ferreyra, R. Andres & Jones, James & Hansen, James & Llovet, Ignacio & Grondona, Martin & O'Brien, James J., 2002. "Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 371-392, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bárbara C. Franco & Omar Defeo & Alberto R. Piola & Marcelo Barreiro & Hu Yang & Leonardo Ortega & Ignacio Gianelli & Jorge P. Castello & Carolina Vera & Claudio Buratti & Marcelo Pájaro & Luciano P. , 2020. "Climate change impacts on the atmospheric circulation, ocean, and fisheries in the southwest South Atlantic Ocean: a review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2359-2377, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Kaixing & Wang, Jinxia & Huang, Jikun & Findlay, Christopher, 2018. "The potential benefits of agricultural adaptation to warming in China in the long run," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 139-160, April.
    2. Carla Roncoli & Christine Jost & Paul Kirshen & Moussa Sanon & Keith Ingram & Mark Woodin & Léopold Somé & Frédéric Ouattara & Bienvenue Sanfo & Ciriaque Sia & Pascal Yaka & Gerrit Hoogenboom, 2009. "From accessing to assessing forecasts: an end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in Burkina Faso (West Africa)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 433-460, February.
    3. Davey, Michael & Brookshaw, Anca, 2011. "Long-range meteorological forecasting and links to agricultural applications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 88-93.
    4. Carter, Chris & Crean, Jason & Kingwell, Ross S. & Hertzler, Greg, 2006. "Managing and Sharing the Risks of Drought in Australia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25319, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Geyser, Mariette & Louw, Andre & Botha, L., 2009. "Is geographic diversification sufficient to limit contract grower risk?," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 48(1), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Villoria, Nelson B. & Delgado, Michael, 2017. "Worldwide Crop Supply Responses to El Niño Southern Oscillation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258564, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Cabrera, Victor E. & Letson, David & Podesta, Guillermo, 2007. "The value of climate information when farm programs matter," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-3), pages 25-42, March.
    8. Andrieu, Nadine & Descheemaeker, Katrien & Sanou, Thierry & Chia, Eduardo, 2015. "Effects of technical interventions on flexibility of farming systems in Burkina Faso: Lessons for the design of innovations in West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 125-137.
    9. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    10. Rizzo, Gonzalo & Mazzilli, Sebastian R. & Ernst, Oswaldo & Baethgen, Walter E. & Berger, Andres G., 2022. "Season-specific management strategies for rainfed soybean in the South American Pampas based on a seasonal precipitation forecast," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    11. Bert, Federico E. & Satorre, Emilio H. & Toranzo, Fernando Ruiz & Podesta, Guillermo P., 2006. "Climatic information and decision-making in maize crop production systems of the Argentinean Pampas," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 88(2-3), pages 180-204, June.
    12. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    13. Nadolnyak, Denis A. & Novak, James L. & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Paz, Joel O. & Fraisse, Clyde W. & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2007. "Non-Parametric Analysis of ENSO Impacts on Yield Distributions: Implications for GRP Contract Design," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34858, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    14. Julián Benitez & Roger Domecq, 2014. "Analysis of meteorological drought episodes in Paraguay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 15-25, November.
    15. Novak, James L. & Nadolnyak, Denis A., 2008. "Climate Effects on Rainfall Index Insurance Purchase Decisions," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46834, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Woli, Prem & Paz, Joel O. & Hoogenboom, Gerrit & Garcia y Garcia, Axel & Fraisse, Clyde W., 2013. "The ENSO effect on peanut yield as influenced by planting date and soil type," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-8.
    17. Ubilava, David & Orlowski, Jan, 2016. "The Predictive Content of Climate Anomalies for Agricultural Production: Does ENSO Really Matter?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236281, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Rotili, Diego Hernán & Giorno, Agustín & Tognetti, Pedro Maximiliano & Maddonni, Gustavo Ángel, 2019. "Expansion of maize production in a semi-arid region of Argentina: Climatic and edaphic constraints and their implications on crop management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    19. World Bank, 2010. "Improving Water Management in Rainfed Agriculture : Issues and Options in Water-Constrained Production Systems," World Bank Publications - Reports 13028, The World Bank Group.
    20. Meza, Francisco J. & Wilks, Daniel S., 2004. "Use of seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies for potato fertilization management. Theoretical study considering EPIC model results at Valdivia, Chile," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 161-180, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1888-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.