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Recent seasonal and long-term changes in southern Australian frost occurrence

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Jeffery Crimp

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO))

  • David Gobbett

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO))

  • Philip Kokic

    (University of Wollongong
    Australian National University Climate Change Institute)

  • Uday Nidumolu

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO))

  • Mark Howden

    (Australian National University Climate Change Institute)

  • Neville Nicholls

    (Monash University)

Abstract

As part of part of a special issue on natural hazards, this paper explores recent changes in Australian minimum temperature extremes. Using minimum temperature data from the 112 observation locations making up the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) data set, as well as the Scientific Information for Land Owners (SILO) minimum temperature gridded data surface, we analyse and map trends in extreme minimum temperature indices across southern Australia at seasonal, annual and multi-decadal timeframes since 1960. Our analyses highlights that across southern Australia, despite a warming trend of 0.17 °C per decade since 1960 in the mean annual minimum temperature, there exist regions of localised cooling as well as a much broader spatially-coherent pattern of increasing “frost season” length. Our analysis identifies that the “frost season length” has, across the whole southern portion of Australia, increased on average by 26 days (at 2014) compared with the 1960 to 1990 long term mean. Some areas of south eastern Australia now experience their last frost an average four weeks later than in the 1960s (i.e. mean date of last frost for the period 1960 to 1970 was 19 September versus 23 October for the period 2000 to 2014). Over isolated portions of southern Australia (i.e. northern Victoria and southern New South Wales), the annual frequency of frost events occurring after August has increased by as much as 4 events per year over the last decade, with localised increases in the occurrence of consecutive frost days also observed. This analysis builds upon earlier more localised trend analyses work by these authors (Crimp et al. 2015), as well as a growing body of international research, highlighting a complex spatio-temporal pattern of temperature change despite a general pattern of annual warming in minimum temperatures.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Jeffery Crimp & David Gobbett & Philip Kokic & Uday Nidumolu & Mark Howden & Neville Nicholls, 2016. "Recent seasonal and long-term changes in southern Australian frost occurrence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 115-128, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:139:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1763-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1763-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick & C. J. White & L. V. Alexander & D. Argüeso & G. Boschat & T. Cowan & J. P. Evans & M. Ekström & E. C. J. Oliver & A. Phatak & A. Purich, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 101-114, November.
    2. Tian-Xiang Yue & Na Zhao & R. Ramsey & Chen-Liang Wang & Ze-Meng Fan & Chuan-Fa Chen & Yi-Min Lu & Bai-Lian Li, 2013. "Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 137-151, September.
    3. Caroline Tan, 2013. "New Disclosures for Climate Change," Econ Focus, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 9-9.
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    3. Abelardo García-Martín & Luis L. Paniagua & Francisco J. Moral & Francisco J. Rebollo & María A. Rozas, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Frost Regime in the Iberian Peninsula in the Context of Climate Change (1975–2018)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-22, July.
    4. Seth Westra & Christopher J. White & Anthony S. Kiem, 2016. "Introduction to the special issue: historical and projected climatic changes to Australian natural hazards," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 1-19, November.

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