IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v136y2016i2d10.1007_s10584-016-1619-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Gwendoline Lacressonnière

    (IPSL/LISA, CNRS/INSU
    IPSL/LSCE, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ
    ARIA-Technologies)

  • Gilles Foret

    (IPSL/LISA, CNRS/INSU)

  • Matthias Beekmann

    (IPSL/LISA, CNRS/INSU)

  • Guillaume Siour

    (IPSL/LISA, CNRS/INSU)

  • Magnuz Engardt

    (SMHI)

  • Michael Gauss

    (EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute)

  • Laura Watson

    (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS)

  • Camilla Andersson

    (SMHI)

  • Augustin Colette

    (INERIS)

  • Béatrice Josse

    (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS)

  • Virginie Marécal

    (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS)

  • Agnes Nyiri

    (EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute)

  • Robert Vautard

    (IPSL/LSCE, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ)

Abstract

A 2-degree global warming is likely to affect the production, deposition, and transport of air pollutants, leading to impacts on air quality and health. In the present study we use an ensemble of four regional chemistry-transport models, driven by meteorological data from different climate models, to assess such changes and their uncertainties for PM2.5 and SOMO35. Changes and uncertainties are compared to the inter-model variability. We find that the impact of regional climate change on PM2.5, averaged over the model ensemble, ranges from −0.5 μg.m−3 to +1.3 μg.m−3 over Europe. It mainly results from changes in natural and biogenic emissions, such as desert dust, sea salt and biogenic VOCs. Statistically significant decreases in PM2.5 are found over southwestern Russia and Ukraine as well as an increase over Southern Spain. Modeled changes in summer ozone levels range from −1.7 to 1.6 ppbv. We find a smaller ensemble-mean evolution of SOMO35 as compared to inter-model variability. We also investigate the uncertainty due to inter-decadal variability and find that 10-year periods may not be sufficient to allow the detection of statistically significant change signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Gwendoline Lacressonnière & Gilles Foret & Matthias Beekmann & Guillaume Siour & Magnuz Engardt & Michael Gauss & Laura Watson & Camilla Andersson & Augustin Colette & Béatrice Josse & Virginie Maréca, 2016. "Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 309-324, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:136:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1619-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1619-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1619-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-016-1619-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ziyun Jing & Pengfei Liu & Tuanhui Wang & Hongquan Song & Jay Lee & Tao Xu & Yu Xing, 2020. "Effects of Meteorological Factors and Anthropogenic Precursors on PM 2.5 Concentrations in Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-13, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:136:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1619-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.