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Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources

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  • David Nash
  • Kathleen Pribyl
  • Jørgen Klein
  • Raphael Neukom
  • Georgina Endfield
  • George Adamson
  • Dominic Kniveton

Abstract

Analyses of historical patterns of rainfall variability are essential for understanding long-term changes in precipitation timing and distribution. Focussing on former Natal and Zululand (now KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa), this study presents the first combined annual and seasonal reconstruction of rainfall variability over southeast Africa for the 19th century. Analyses of documentary sources, including newspapers and colonial and missionary materials, indicate that the region was affected by severe or multi-year drought on eight occasions between 1836 and 1900 (the rainy seasons of 1836–38, 1861–63, 1865–66, 1868–70, 1876–79, 1883–85, 1886–90 and 1895–1900). Six severe or multi-year wet periods are also identified (1847–49, 1854–57, 1863–65, 1879–81, 1890–91 and 1892–94). The timing of these events agrees well with independent reconstructions of 19th century rainfall for other parts of the southern African summer rainfall zone (SRZ), suggesting subcontinental scale variability. Our results indicate that the relationship between El Niño and rainfall in southeast Africa was relatively stable, at least for the latter half of the 19th century. El Niño conditions appear to have had a more consistent modulating effect upon rainfall during the 19th century than La Niña. The rainfall chronology from this study is combined with other annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from mainland southern Africa and surrounding oceans as part of a multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction for the SRZ. This reconstruction confirms (i) the long-term importance of ENSO and Indian Ocean SSTs for modulating regional rainfall; and (ii) that summer precipitation has been declining progressively over the last 200 years. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • David Nash & Kathleen Pribyl & Jørgen Klein & Raphael Neukom & Georgina Endfield & George Adamson & Dominic Kniveton, 2016. "Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 605-619, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:4:p:605-619
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1550-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joëlle Gergis & Anthony Fowler, 2009. "A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 343-387, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. David J. Nash & Jørgen Klein & Georgina H. Endfield & Kathleen Pribyl & George C. D. Adamson & Stefan W. Grab, 2019. "Narratives of nineteenth century drought in southern Africa in different historical source types," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 467-485, March.
    2. Marie-Michèle Ouellet-Bernier & Najat Bhiry & Laura Brassard, 2023. "Historical temperature and wind conditions in the Hudson Strait region from 1880 to 1950: Kangiqsujuaq, Quaqtaq, and Killiniq," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-21, June.

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