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Temporal trends in extreme rainfall intensity and erosivity in the Mediterranean region: a case study in southern Tuscany, Italy

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  • Chiara Vallebona
  • Elisa Pellegrino
  • Paolo Frumento
  • Enrico Bonari

Abstract

Worldwide climate is likely to become more variable or extreme with increases in intense precipitation. In Mediterranean areas, climate change will increase the risks of droughts, flash floods and soil erosion. Despite rainfall intensity being a key factor in erosive processes, in these areas information on extreme rainfall intensity and the associated erosivity, based on high-temporal resolution data, is either non homogeneous or scarce. These parameters thus need to be assessed in order to highlight suitable adaptation strategies. In this paper, an hourly rainfall intensity (RI) data series is analyzed together with the corresponding 1-min rainfall intensity maximum (RIm) of 23 rainfall gauges located in Tuscany, Italy, in an area highly vulnerable to erosion. The aim is to look for temporal trends (1989–2010) in extreme rainfall intensity and erosivity. Fixed effect logistic regression shows statistically significant temporal increases in the number of RI and RIm exceedances over the 95th percentile threshold. Winter is shown to be the season with the strongest increasing trend in coastal and inland rainfall gauge groups, followed by spring for the coastal group and autumn for the inland group. Linear regressions show that in the inland group there is a temporal increase in rainfall erosivity and on a seasonal basis, the highest increase is observed in autumn. By contrast, for the coastal group this increasing trend is only detectable for spring and winter. Such an increase in rainfall erosivity and its potential continuation could have a strong adverse effect on Mediterranean land conservation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Vallebona & Elisa Pellegrino & Paolo Frumento & Enrico Bonari, 2015. "Temporal trends in extreme rainfall intensity and erosivity in the Mediterranean region: a case study in southern Tuscany, Italy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 139-151, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:128:y:2015:i:1:p:139-151
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1287-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nazzareno Diodato & Gianni Bellocchi & Nunzio Romano & Giovanni Chirico, 2011. "How the aggressiveness of rainfalls in the Mediterranean lands is enhanced by climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 591-599, October.
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    1. Tanja Micić Ponjiger & Tin Lukić & Biljana Basarin & Maja Jokić & Robert L. Wilby & Dragoslav Pavić & Minučer Mesaroš & Aleksandar Valjarević & Miško M. Milanović & Cezar Morar, 2021. "Detailed Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variability of Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density in the Central and Southern Pannonian Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-31, December.
    2. Nejc Bezak & Martina Kovačević & Gregor Johnen & Klaudija Lebar & Vesna Zupanc & Andrej Vidmar & Simon Rusjan, 2021. "Exploring Options for Flood Risk Management with Special Focus on Retention Reservoirs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Xinlan Liang & Lei Zhang & Shuqin He & Ke Song & Zicheng Zheng, 2023. "Characteristics and Projection of Rainfall Erosivity Distribution in the Hengduan Mountains," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Pan Zhang & Weiying Sun & Peiqing Xiao & Wenyi Yao & Guobin Liu, 2022. "Driving Factors of Heavy Rainfall Causing Flash Floods in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River: A Case Study in the Wuding River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-11, June.
    5. Leonardo V. Noto & Giuseppe Cipolla & Antonio Francipane & Dario Pumo, 2023. "Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2287-2305, May.

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