IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v124y2014i1p271-284.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal water depth management on river-fed National Wildlife Refuges in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Sam Nicol
  • Brad Griffith
  • Jane Austin
  • Christine Hunter

Abstract

The prairie pothole region (PPR) in the north-central United States and south-central Canada constitutes the most important waterfowl breeding area in North America. Projected long-term changes in precipitation and temperature may alter the drivers of waterfowl abundance: wetland availability and emergent vegetation cover. Previous studies have focused on isolated wetland dynamics, but the implications of changing precipitation on managed, river-fed wetlands have not been addressed. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach, we derived optimal water management actions for 20 years at four river-fed National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in North and South Dakota under contrasting increasing/decreasing (+/−0.4 %/year) inflow scenarios derived from empirical trends. Refuge pool depth is manipulated by control structures. Optimal management involves setting control structure heights that have the highest probability of providing a desired mix of waterfowl habitat, given refuge capacities and inflows. We found optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge were essentially the same under increasing and decreasing inflow trends of 0.4 %/year over the next 20 years. Results suggest managed pools in the NWRs receive large inflows relative to their capacities. Hence, water availability does not constrain management; pool bathymetry and management tactics can be greater constraints on attaining management objectives than climate-mediated inflow. We present time-dependent optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge, which are resilient to the non-stationary precipitation scenarios we examined. Managers can use this information to provide a desired mixture of wildlife habitats, and to re-assess management objectives in reserves where pool bathymetry prevents attaining the currently stated objectives. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (except in the USA) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Sam Nicol & Brad Griffith & Jane Austin & Christine Hunter, 2014. "Optimal water depth management on river-fed National Wildlife Refuges in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 271-284, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:271-284
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1033-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-1033-8
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-1033-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julien Martin & Paul Fackler & James Nichols & Bruce Lubow & Mitchell Eaton & Michael Runge & Bradley Stith & Catherine Langtimm, 2011. "Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(1), pages 185-202, July.
    2. A. E. Ades & G. Lu & K. Claxton, 2004. "Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations in Medical Decision Modeling," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 24(2), pages 207-227, March.
    3. Yang, Wei, 2011. "A multi-objective optimization approach to allocate environmental flows to the artificially restored wetlands of China's Yellow River Delta," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 261-267.
    4. Richard Bellman, 1957. "On a Dynamic Programming Approach to the Caterer Problem--I," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 270-278, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Voelkel, Michael A. & Sachs, Anna-Lena & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2020. "An aggregation-based approximate dynamic programming approach for the periodic review model with random yield," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(2), pages 286-298.
    2. Yang, Wei & Yang, Zhifeng & Qin, Yan, 2011. "An optimization approach for sustainable release of e-flows for lake restoration and preservation: Model development and a case study of Baiyangdian Lake, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(14), pages 2448-2455.
    3. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    4. D. W. K. Yeung, 2008. "Dynamically Consistent Solution For A Pollution Management Game In Collaborative Abatement With Uncertain Future Payoffs," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 517-538.
    5. Hanafi, Said & Freville, Arnaud, 1998. "An efficient tabu search approach for the 0-1 multidimensional knapsack problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(2-3), pages 659-675, April.
    6. Renato Cordeiro Amorim, 2016. "A Survey on Feature Weighting Based K-Means Algorithms," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 33(2), pages 210-242, July.
    7. Dmitri Blueschke & Ivan Savin, 2015. "No such thing like perfect hammer: comparing different objective function specifications for optimal control," Jena Economics Research Papers 2015-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Changming Ji & Chuangang Li & Boquan Wang & Minghao Liu & Liping Wang, 2017. "Multi-Stage Dynamic Programming Method for Short-Term Cascade Reservoirs Optimal Operation with Flow Attenuation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4571-4586, November.
    9. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Al-Jefri, Essam H., 2015. "الحساب الجاري في المدى البعيد عبر نموذج داخلي الزمن [The Current Account in the Long Run through the Intertemporal Model]," MPRA Paper 66527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wei Fang & Zhenru Wang & Michael B. Giles & Chris H. Jackson & Nicky J. Welton & Christophe Andrieu & Howard Thom, 2022. "Multilevel and Quasi Monte Carlo Methods for the Calculation of the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 42(2), pages 168-181, February.
    11. John Stachurski, 2009. "Economic Dynamics: Theory and Computation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012774, April.
    12. Mercedes Esteban-Bravo & Jose M. Vidal-Sanz & Gökhan Yildirim, 2014. "Valuing Customer Portfolios with Endogenous Mass and Direct Marketing Interventions Using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming Decomposition," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(5), pages 621-640, September.
    13. Ohno, Katsuhisa & Boh, Toshitaka & Nakade, Koichi & Tamura, Takayoshi, 2016. "New approximate dynamic programming algorithms for large-scale undiscounted Markov decision processes and their application to optimize a production and distribution system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 22-31.
    14. Fernando Alarid-Escudero & Eline Krijkamp & Eva A. Enns & Alan Yang & M. G. Myriam Hunink & Petros Pechlivanoglou & Hawre Jalal, 2023. "A Tutorial on Time-Dependent Cohort State-Transition Models in R Using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 43(1), pages 21-41, January.
    15. Oleg Malafeyev & Achal Awasthi, 2015. "A Dynamic Model of Functioning of a Bank," Papers 1511.01529, arXiv.org.
    16. McKenna, Claire & Chalabi, Zaid & Epstein, David & Claxton, Karl, 2010. "Budgetary policies and available actions: A generalisation of decision rules for allocation and research decisions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 170-181, January.
    17. Bellemare, Charles, 2007. "A life-cycle model of outmigration and economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 553-576, April.
    18. Daniel Adelman & George L. Nemhauser & Mario Padron & Robert Stubbs & Ram Pandit, 1999. "Allocating Fibers in Cable Manufacturing," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 21-35.
    19. Fosgerau, Mogens & Frejinger, Emma & Karlstrom, Anders, 2013. "A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 70-80.
    20. Alipanah, A. & Razzaghi, M. & Dehghan, M., 2007. "Nonclassical pseudospectral method for the solution of brachistochrone problem," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1622-1628.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:271-284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.