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Prevention and medication of HIV/AIDS: the case of Botswana

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  • Christian Almeder
  • Gustav Feichtinger
  • Warren Sanderson
  • Vladimir Veliov

Abstract

In this paper we developed a mathematical model which allows estimating and projecting the effects of prevention and treatment programs on the total population size, HIV-induced deaths, and life expectancies. Considering only the female population we project the changes of the demographic developments and the situation of HIV/AIDS for Botswana up to 2060. Our mathematical model is used to project the female population development considering their age-structure. Treatment programs are included through selecting a price for medication (or giving it for free). Prevention programs consist of two parts: school-based programs which try to change risky behavior and instantaneous prevention (e.g., free condoms) which has only a short-time effect on the infection risk. The main conclusions drawn from our results are that prevention-only programs always yield the fastest decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Adding a medication program reduces the efficiency of the prevention interventions regarding prevalence, but it reduces the number of HIV-induced deaths and increases life expectancies. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Almeder & Gustav Feichtinger & Warren Sanderson & Vladimir Veliov, 2007. "Prevention and medication of HIV/AIDS: the case of Botswana," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 15(1), pages 47-61, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:15:y:2007:i:1:p:47-61
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-006-0018-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gustav Feichtinger & Vladimir Veliov & Tsvetomir Tsachev, 2004. "Maximum Principle For Age And Duration Structured Systems: A Tool For Optimal Prevention And Treatment Of Hiv," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 3-28.
    2. Mead Over & Peter Heywood & Julian Gold & Indrani Gupta & Subhash Hira & Elliot Marseille, 2004. "HIV/AIDS Treatment and Prevention in India : Modeling the Cost and Consequences," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14916.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wrzaczek, Stefan & Kuhn, Michael & Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2010. "The reproductive value in distributed optimal control models," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 164-170.
    2. Azomahou, Theophile, 2008. "The Economic Impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa," MERIT Working Papers 2008-038, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Herbert Dawid & Engelbert Dockner & Richard Hartl & Josef Haunschmied & Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger & Mikulas Luptacik & Alexander Mehlmann & Alexia Prskawetz & Marion Rauner & Gerhard Sorger & Gernot T, 2010. "Gustav Feichtinger celebrates his 70th birthday," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 437-451, December.

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