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Oil Extraction, Economic Growth, and Oil Price Dynamics

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  • Aude Illig

    (CeReMath, University of Toulouse Capitole)

  • Ian Schindler

    (CeReMath, University of Toulouse Capitole)

Abstract

We use economic production function theory and an empirical model of oil prices based only on oil extraction data to analyze the dynamics of the economy and oil prices as we transition into the contraction phase of oil extraction. We explore the implications with respect to several common scenarios. We find that price feedback cycles which lead to increased production during the growth phase of oil extraction go into reverse in the contraction phase of oil extraction speeding decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Aude Illig & Ian Schindler, 2017. "Oil Extraction, Economic Growth, and Oil Price Dynamics," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:bioerq:v:2:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s41247-016-0016-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s41247-016-0016-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Wang, Ke & Feng, Lianyong & Wang, Jianliang & Xiong, Yi & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "An oil production forecast for China considering economic limits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 586-596.
    5. Cheong, Chin Wen, 2009. "Modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using ARCH-type models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2346-2355, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. K. Bithas & P. Kalimeris, 2018. "Matter Matters: Reconsidering the (De)materialization of a Hundred Years of Growth," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-10, March.
    2. Garcia, Luis Enrique & Illig, Aude & Schindler, Ian, 2018. "Oil Cycle Dynamics and Future Oil Price Scenarios," TSE Working Papers 18-969, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Reiner Kümmel & Dietmar Lindenberger, 2020. "Energy in Growth Accounting and the Aggregation of Capital and Output," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, March.
    4. Guay-Boutet, Charles & Dufour, Mathieu, 2024. "Estimating the relationship between EROI and profitability of oil sands mining, 1997–2016," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Luis Enrique Garcia & Aude Illig & Ian Schindler, 2020. "Understanding Oil Cycle Dynamics to Design the Future Economy," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 1-17, December.

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