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Modell, Annahmen und Ergebnisse einer nach Migrationshintergrund differenzierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung für Bayern bis 2022

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  • Kristin Woltering

Abstract

Population projections quantify the changes in size and composition of a population that would occur if recent demographic trends were to continue into the future. This essay presents the model, the underlying assumptions, and the results of a projection of the Bavarian population differentiated by its immigrant background. The population with immigrant background does not only comprise residing aliens but also ethnic German immigrants and naturalised Germans plus their respective German children. The adopted model is based on the cohort component method. The considered demographic components are fertility, mortality, migration and the change between sub-populations, either by birth or by naturalisation. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kristin Woltering, 2014. "Modell, Annahmen und Ergebnisse einer nach Migrationshintergrund differenzierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung für Bayern bis 2022," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 49-79, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:8:y:2014:i:1:p:49-79
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-014-0139-4
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    1. Joop Garssen & Han Nicolaas, 2008. "Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to native level within one generation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(33), pages 1249-1280.
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    3. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2008. "Höhere Erwerbsbeteiligung der Frauen und Rente mit 67 können Arbeitskräfteangebot stabilisieren – Modellrechnungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland bis 2050," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(13), pages 11-21, July.
    4. Erika Schulz, 2008. "Weniger Menschen, aber Arbeitskräfteangebot bleibt bis 2025 stabil," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(40), pages 596-602.
    5. Erika Schulz, 2004. "Bevölkerungsentwicklung in West- und Ostdeutschland: Vorausschätzung bis 2050," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(33), pages 471-485.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ralf Münnich, 2014. "Vorwort des Herausgebers," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-4, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bevölkerung; Vorausberechnung; Migrationshintergrund; C10; J11; Population; Projection; Immigrant Background;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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