Uncovering embodied carbon emissions network between China and major regional economies with consideration of China’s trade structure optimization

Carbon emissions embodied in trade account for 23% of total global emissions. This phenomenon will exacerbate as global trade flourishes, impeding carbon reduction. To clarify the evolutionary characteristics of global embodied carbon network, we constructed a multiregional input–output model spanning 2001 to 2021, encompassing China (CHN), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the European Union (EU), and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which represent 76% of global GDP. Combining industry correlation analysis and scenario simulation, we further explored embodied carbon emissions (ECE) mitigation potential through trade restructuring and carbon emissions intensity reducing in China. Results revealed an 89% increase in global ECE over the past two decades, with 70% contributed by intermediate trade. China emerged as the only country with net carbon inflow, but it experienced a significant decrease in net inflow in 2021 (32% lower than the peak in 2011). Conversely, the other three economic entities exhibited net carbon outflow in aggregate terms. Notably, RCEP (except CHN) experienced a transition in the direction of carbon flows in final trade, shifting from accounting for 10% of net global carbon outflows to 11% of inflows. In addition, dual control of emission intensity and trade scale, particularly in manufacturing industries, can reduce net inflows to China by up to 19% and contribute a 3.42% decrease in global ECE. Promoting trade to final products and transforming key industries to low-carbon, high value-added sectors were vital for carbon mitigation. These results can facilitate policy-making in shaping green and low-carbon foreign trade patterns. Graphical abstract