IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/anresc/v49y2012i3p589-617.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertain economic growth and sprawl: evidence from a stochastic growth approach

Author

Listed:
  • Belal Fallah
  • Mark Partridge
  • M. Olfert

Abstract

This paper examines how the volatility of local economies, represented by uncertainty over future land rents, affects urban sprawl. We develop a theoretic model that links sprawl to shocks to expected rent from future land development, among other factors. The econometric analysis draws upon panel data from US metropolitan areas. To measure urban sprawl, we construct a distinctive measure that captures the distribution of population density within metropolitan areas. Using a proxy for uncertainty over future land rents, we confirm the theoretic prediction that across US metropolitan areas, higher levels of uncertainty are associated with lower levels of sprawl. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Belal Fallah & Mark Partridge & M. Olfert, 2012. "Uncertain economic growth and sprawl: evidence from a stochastic growth approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-617, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:49:y:2012:i:3:p:589-617
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-011-0466-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00168-011-0466-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00168-011-0466-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moretti, Enrico, 2011. "Local Labor Markets," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 14, pages 1237-1313, Elsevier.
    2. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
    3. Brueckner, Jan K. & Thisse, Jacques-Francois & Zenou, Yves, 1999. "Why is central Paris rich and downtown Detroit poor?: An amenity-based theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 91-107, January.
    4. Marcy Burchfield & Henry G. Overman & Diego Puga & Matthew A. Turner, 2006. "Causes of Sprawl: A Portrait from Space," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 587-633.
    5. Thomas J. Nechyba & Randall P. Walsh, 2004. "Urban Sprawl," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 177-200, Fall.
    6. JunJie Wu, 2010. "Economic Fundamentals And Urban–Suburban Disparities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 570-591, May.
    7. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    8. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    9. Glaeser, Edward L. & Kahn, Matthew E., 2004. "Sprawl and urban growth," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 56, pages 2481-2527, Elsevier.
    10. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1996. "Urban Development with Lags," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 87-113, January.
    11. Mark D. Partridge, 2005. "Does Income Distribution Affect U.S. State Economic Growth?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 363-394, May.
    12. Anas, Alex, 1978. "Dynamics of urban residential growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 66-87, January.
    13. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    14. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(5), pages 416-416.
    15. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Stavins, Robert N., 2002. "The effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 561-581, November.
    16. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    17. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
    18. Jordan, Stacy & Ross, John P. & Usowski, Kurt G., 1998. "U.S. suburbanization in the 1980s1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 611-627, September.
    19. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1567-1606.
    20. Margo, Robert A., 1992. "Explaining the postwar suburbanization of population in the United States: The role of income," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 301-310, May.
    21. Alberto Moel, 2002. "When Are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 35-64, March.
    22. John R. Ottensmann, 1977. "Urban Sprawl, Land Values and the Density of Development," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(4), pages 389-400.
    23. John Carruthers, 2003. "Growth at the fringe: The influence of political fragmentation in United States metropolitan areas," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 82(4), pages 475-499, November.
    24. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-514, June.
    25. Brueckner, Jan K & Fansler, David A, 1983. "The Economics of Urban Sprawl: Theory and Evidence on the Spatial Sizes of Cities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 479-482, August.
    26. Capozza, Dennis & Li, Yuming, 1994. "The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 889-904, September.
    27. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, November.
    28. McFarlane, Alastair, 1999. "Taxes, Fees, and Urban Development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 416-436, November.
    29. Davis, Morris A. & Palumbo, Michael G., 2008. "The price of residential land in large US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 352-384, January.
    30. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S., 2003. "The waxing and waning of regional economies: the chicken-egg question of jobs versus people," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 76-97, January.
    31. John Carruthers, 2003. "Growth at the fringe: The influence of political fragmentation in United States metropolitan areas," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 82(4), pages 475-499, November.
    32. Wu, JunJie, 2006. "Environmental amenities, urban sprawl, and community characteristics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 527-547, September.
    33. Mills, David E., 1981. "Growth, speculation and sprawl in a monocentric city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 201-226, September.
    34. Irwin, Elena G. & Bockstael, Nancy E., 2004. "Land use externalities, open space preservation, and urban sprawl," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 705-725, November.
    35. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
    36. A. Steven Holland & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2000. "The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination of Competing Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-64.
    37. John I. Carruthers & Alexander C. Vias, 2005. "Urban, Suburban, and Exurban Sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West: Evidence from Regional Adjustment Models," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 21-48, February.
    38. Mills, Edwin S. & Price, Richard, 1984. "Metropolitan suburbanization and central city problems," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.
    39. JunJie Wu, 2001. "Environmental Amenities and the Spatial Pattern of Urban Sprawl," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 691-697.
    40. Harrison, David Jr. & Kain, John F., 1974. "Cumulative urban growth and urban density functions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 61-98, January.
    41. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-349, June.
    42. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joan Carles Martori & Rafa Madariaga & Ramon Oller, 2016. "Real estate bubble and urban population density: six Spanish metropolitan areas 2001–2011," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(2), pages 369-392, March.
    2. Wang, Shaobo & Zhou, Yutao & Guo, Jianke & Mao, Jinhuang, 2023. "Did high speed rail accelerate the development of tourism economy? – Empirical analysis from Northeast China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 25-35.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
    2. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2015. "Urban Land Use," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 467-560, Elsevier.
    3. Guillaume POUYANNE, 2008. "Economics of discontinuous urban development (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2008-07, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    4. Andrianos Tsekrekos & George Kanoutos, 2013. "Real Options Premia Implied from Recent Transactions in the Greek Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 152-168, July.
    5. Coisnon, Thomas & Oueslati, Walid & Salanié, Julien, 2014. "Urban sprawl occurrence under spatially varying agricultural amenities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 38-49.
    6. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    7. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2018. "Managing Bubbles in the Korean Real Estate Market: A Real Options Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
    8. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S., 2012. "Integrating regional economic development analysis and land use economics," MPRA Paper 38291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Miriam Hortas-Rico, 2015. "Sprawl, Blight, And The Role Of Urban Containment Policies: Evidence From U.S. Cities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 298-323, March.
    10. Miguel Gómez-Antonio & Miriam Hortas-Rico & Linna Li, 2016. "The Causes of Urban Sprawl in Spanish Urban Areas: A Spatial Approach," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 219-247, June.
    11. Belal N. Fallah & Mark D. Partridge & M. Rose Olfert, 2011. "Urban sprawl and productivity: Evidence from US metropolitan areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(3), pages 451-472, August.
    12. Thomas Coisnon & Walid Oueslati & Julien Salanié, 2012. "Urban sprawl occurrence under spatially varying agricultural bid-rent and amenities," Working Papers halshs-00748681, HAL.
    13. Bulan, Laarni T., 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    14. Xiaoxuan Sun & Diana Mok & Jinfei Wang, 2021. "Real options, housing price risk, and urban sprawl: A case study of the Toronto census metropolitan area using remotely sensed data, 1986–2016," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(5), pages 1273-1294, October.
    15. Xiaoxuan Sun & Diana Mok & Jinfei Wang, 2023. "Are riskier cities more compact? An empirical study of the 11 largest census metropolitan areas in Canada, 2016," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 167-186, February.
    16. Laarni T. Bulan, 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    17. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    18. Miriam Hortas-Rico, 2015. "Sprawl, Blight, And The Role Of Urban Containment Policies: Evidence From U.S. Cities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 298-323, March.
    19. Wrenn, Douglas H. & Sam, Abdoul G., 2014. "Geographically and temporally weighted likelihood regression: Exploring the spatiotemporal determinants of land use change," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 60-74.
    20. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    R11; R12; R58;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:49:y:2012:i:3:p:589-617. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.