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Result-based talent identification in road cycling: discovering the next Eddy Merckx

Author

Listed:
  • David Van Bulck

    (Ghent University)

  • Arthur Vande Weghe

    (Ghent University)

  • Dries Goossens

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

In various sports large amounts of data are nowadays collected and analyzed to help scouts with identifying talented young athletes. In contrast, the literature on result-based talent identification in road cycling is remarkably scarce. The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into the possibilities of the use of publicly available data to discover new talented Under-23 (U23) riders via statistical learning methods (linear regression and random forest techniques). At the same time, we try to find out the main determinants of success for U23 riders in their first years of professional cycling. We collect results for more than 25000 road cycling races from 2007–2018 and consider more than 2500 riders from over 80 countries. We use the data from 2007 to 2017 to train and validate our models, and use the data from 2018 to predict how well U23 riders will perform in their first three elite years. Our results reveal that past U23 race results appear to be important predictors of future cycling performance.

Suggested Citation

  • David Van Bulck & Arthur Vande Weghe & Dries Goossens, 2023. "Result-based talent identification in road cycling: discovering the next Eddy Merckx," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 539-556, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:325:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04280-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04280-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), 2016. "The Economics of Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management and Policy, Springer, edition 1, number 978-3-319-22312-4, February.
    2. Daam Reeth, 2016. "Globalization in Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 165-205, Springer.
    3. Jean-François Mignot, 2016. "The History of Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 7-31, Springer.
    4. Jean-François Brocard & Daniel Joseph Larson, 2016. "Agents in Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 147-163, Springer.
    5. Benjamin Cabaud & Nicolas Scelles & Aurélien François & Stephen Morrow, 2016. "Modeling Performances and Competitive Balance in Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 257-283, Springer.
    6. Luca Rebeggiani, 2016. "The Organizational Structure of Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 33-54, Springer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ausloos, Marcel, 2024. "Hierarchy selection: New team ranking indicators for cyclist multi-stage races," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(2), pages 807-816.

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