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Impact of supply risks on procurement decisions

Author

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  • Shanshan Guo

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Lei Zhao

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Xiaowei Xu

    (Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey)

Abstract

We consider a firm that procures a product from a regular supplier whose production is subject to both supply disruption and random yield risks and a backup supplier whose production capacity requires reservation in advance. Under both deterministic and stochastic demand, we study the impact of the two types of supply risks on the firm’s optimal procurement decisions and the importance of correctly identifying the source of supply risks. We find that if the overall supply risk is unchanged but its main source shifts from random yield to supply disruption, the firm should order more from the regular supplier and reserve less capacity from the backup supplier. Ignoring the existence of supply disruption leads to under-utilization of the regular supplier and over-utilization of the backup supplier. Moreover, we examine the option value of the reserved capacity that is affected by the uncertainty of customer demand. We find that the option value increases/decreases in demand uncertainty if the reservation capacity is exercised after/before demand is realized.

Suggested Citation

  • Shanshan Guo & Lei Zhao & Xiaowei Xu, 2016. "Impact of supply risks on procurement decisions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 241(1), pages 411-430, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:241:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-013-1422-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-013-1422-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bo He & Yange Yang, 2018. "Mitigating supply risk: an approach with quantity flexibility procurement," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 599-617, December.
    2. M. J. Hermoso-Orzáez & J. Garzón-Moreno, 2022. "Risk management methodology in the supply chain: a case study applied," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1051-1075, June.
    3. Gheibi, Shahryar & Fay, Scott, 2021. "The impact of supply disruption risk on a retailer’s pricing and procurement strategies in the presence of a substitute product," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 359-376.
    4. Sanjoy Kumar Paul & Sobhan Asian & Mark Goh & S. Ali Torabi, 2019. "Managing sudden transportation disruptions in supply chains under delivery delay and quantity loss," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 273(1), pages 783-814, February.
    5. Tsan-Ming Choi & Ya-Jun Cai, 2020. "Impacts of lead time reduction on fabric sourcing in apparel production with yield and environmental considerations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 290(1), pages 521-542, July.
    6. Papachristos, Ioannis & Pandelis, Dimitrios G., 2022. "Newsvendor models with random supply capacity and backup sourcing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1231-1243.
    7. Kelei Xue & Yongjian Li & Xueping Zhen & Wen Wang, 2020. "Managing the supply disruption risk: option contract or order commitment contract?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 291(1), pages 985-1026, August.
    8. Bo He & Guo Li & Mengqi Liu, 2018. "Impacts of decision sequences on a random yield supply chain with a service level requirement," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 268(1), pages 469-495, September.

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