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Uncertainty Modelling in Software Development Projects (With Case Study)

Author

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  • Linet Özdamar
  • Ebru Alanya

Abstract

A project scheduling model tailored specifically for software development projects is proposed in this study. The model incorporates uncertainties related to activity durations and network topology. The first type of uncertainty exists due to error-prone coding which might result in elongated task durations caused by validation and debugging sessions. Furthermore, in practice, macro-activities represent groups of sub-tasks in order to simplify the planning and monitoring of the project. Due to the aggregation, it is more difficult to be precise on the duration of a macro-activity. The uncertainty related to the network topology is due to common database design issues or program modules shared among parallel tasks in the project network. These tasks become associated with each other through uncertain Start-to-Start (SS) precedence relationships. On the other hand, SS lags may also be the outcome of technological precedence relationships among pairs of activities. However, the imprecision underlying the work content of a predecessor activity leads to uncertain SS lags. Software development projects are human-intensive projects and hence, the duration of a task depends on the skill of the person assigned to the job as well as his/her learning rate. Thus, a task may be realized by alternative staff members which results in different expected task durations. Hence, a realistic model proposed for software development projects should incorporate staff assignment features under the uncertainties discussed above. In this study, we develop a mathematical model for software development projects and propose heuristic solution methods to be used by the project co-ordinator in preparing the project plan. The heuristic algorithms developed here are tested on real data provided by a consulting firm undertaking software development projects from manufacturing companies in Turkey. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Linet Özdamar & Ebru Alanya, 2001. "Uncertainty Modelling in Software Development Projects (With Case Study)," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 102(1), pages 157-178, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:102:y:2001:i:1:p:157-178:10.1023/a:1010906116000
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1010906116000
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaut, Michal & Vaagen, Hajnalka & Wallace, Stein W., 2021. "The combined impact of stochastic and correlated activity durations and design uncertainty on project plans," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Hazır, Öncü & Ulusoy, Gündüz, 2020. "A classification and review of approaches and methods for modeling uncertainty in projects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    3. Mengmeng Zhu & Hoang Pham, 2022. "A generalized multiple environmental factors software reliability model with stochastic fault detection process," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 311(1), pages 525-546, April.
    4. Öncü Hazir & Gündüz Ulusoy, 2020. "A classification and review of approaches and methods for modeling uncertainty in projects," Post-Print hal-02898162, HAL.

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