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On likelihood ratio testing for penalized splines

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  • Sonja Greven
  • Ciprian Crainiceanu

Abstract

Penalized spline regression using a mixed effects representation is one of the most popular nonparametric regression tools to estimate an unknown regression function $$f(\cdot )$$ . In this context testing for polynomial regression against a general alternative is equivalent to testing for a zero variance component. In this paper, we fill the gap between different published null distributions of the corresponding restricted likelihood ratio test under different assumptions. We show that: (1) the asymptotic scenario is determined by the choice of the penalty and not by the choice of the spline basis or number of knots; (2) non-standard asymptotic results correspond to common penalized spline penalties on derivatives of $$f(\cdot )$$ , which ensure good power properties; and (3) standard asymptotic results correspond to penalized spline penalties on $$f(\cdot )$$ itself, which lead to sizeable power losses under smooth alternatives. We provide simple and easy to use guidelines for the restricted likelihood ratio test in this context. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Sonja Greven & Ciprian Crainiceanu, 2013. "On likelihood ratio testing for penalized splines," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(4), pages 387-402, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:97:y:2013:i:4:p:387-402
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-013-0214-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167.
    2. Yingxing Li & David Ruppert, 2008. "On the asymptotics of penalized splines," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(2), pages 415-436.
    3. Ciprian Crainiceanu & David Ruppert & Gerda Claeskens & M. P. Wand, 2005. "Exact likelihood ratio tests for penalised splines," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(1), pages 91-103, March.
    4. Gerda Claeskens, 2004. "Restricted likelihood ratio lack‐of‐fit tests using mixed spline models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 909-926, November.
    5. Gerda Claeskens & Tatyana Krivobokova & Jean D. Opsomer, 2009. "Asymptotic properties of penalized spline estimators," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(3), pages 529-544.
    6. Eva Cantoni, 2002. "Degrees-of-freedom tests for smoothing splines," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 251-263, June.
    7. Sonja Greven & Thomas Kneib, 2010. "On the behaviour of marginal and conditional AIC in linear mixed models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 97(4), pages 773-789.
    8. Göran Kauermann & Tatyana Krivobokova & Ludwig Fahrmeir, 2009. "Some asymptotic results on generalized penalized spline smoothing," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 487-503, April.
    9. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506.
    10. Ciprian M. Crainiceanu & David Ruppert, 2004. "Likelihood ratio tests in linear mixed models with one variance component," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 165-185, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sonja Greven & Fabian Scheipl, 2016. "Comment," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1568-1573, October.

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