IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/alstar/v107y2023i3d10.1007_s10182-022-00459-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Distributional properties of continuous time processes: from CIR to bates

Author

Listed:
  • Ostap Okhrin

    (Chair of Statistics and Econometrics esp. Transportation, Technische Universität Dresden)

  • Michael Rockinger

    (University of Lausanne)

  • Manuel Schmid

    (Chair of Statistics and Econometrics esp. Transportation, Technische Universität Dresden)

Abstract

In this paper, we compute closed-form expressions of moments and comoments for the CIR process which allows us to provide a new construction of the transition probability density based on a moment argument that differs from the historic approach. For Bates’ model with stochastic volatility and jumps, we show that finite difference approximations of higher moments such as the skewness and the kurtosis are unstable and, as a remedy, provide exact analytic formulas for log-returns. Our approach does not assume a constant mean for log-price differentials but correctly incorporates volatility resulting from Ito’s lemma. We also provide R, MATLAB, and Mathematica modules with exact implementations of the theoretical conditional and unconditional moments. These modules should prove useful for empirical research.

Suggested Citation

  • Ostap Okhrin & Michael Rockinger & Manuel Schmid, 2023. "Distributional properties of continuous time processes: from CIR to bates," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(3), pages 397-419, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:107:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s10182-022-00459-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-022-00459-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10182-022-00459-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10182-022-00459-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jin E. Zhang & Fang Zhen & Xiaoxia Sun & Huimin Zhao, 2017. "The Skewness Implied in the Heston Model and Its Application," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 211-237, March.
    2. Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar & Eric Ghysels, 2013. "Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 85-124, February.
    3. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    4. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    5. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    6. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    7. Rubinstein, Mark E., 1973. "The Fundamental Theorem of Parameter-Preference Security Valuation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 61-69, January.
    8. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    9. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pakorn Aschakulporn & Jin E. Zhang, 2022. "Bakshi, Kapadia, and Madan (2003) risk‐neutral moment estimators: An affine jump‐diffusion approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 365-388, March.
    2. Zhen Fang & Zhang Jin E., 2020. "Dissecting skewness under affine jump-diffusions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Li, Chenxu & Li, Chen Xu, 2021. "Closed-form implied volatility surfaces for stochastic volatility models with jumps," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 364-392.
    4. Dario Alitab & Giacomo Bormetti & Fulvio Corsi & Adam A. Majewski, 2019. "A realized volatility approach to option pricing with continuous and jump variance components," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 42(2), pages 639-664, December.
    5. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    6. Guégan, Dominique & Ielpo, Florian & Lalaharison, Hanjarivo, 2013. "Option pricing with discrete time jump processes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2417-2445.
    7. Christoffersen, Peter & Heston, Steve & Jacobs, Kris, 2006. "Option valuation with conditional skewness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 253-284.
    8. Cosma, Antonio & Galluccio, Stefano & Pederzoli, Paola & Scaillet, Olivier, 2020. "Early Exercise Decision in American Options with Dividends, Stochastic Volatility, and Jumps," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 331-356, February.
    9. Matic, Jovanka Lili & Packham, Natalie & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2021. "Hedging Cryptocurrency Options," MPRA Paper 110985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Cosma, Antonio & Galluccio, Stefano & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Valuing American options using fast recursive projections," Working Papers unige:41856, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
    11. Neumann, Maximilian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2016. "Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 72-83.
    12. Daniël Vullings, 2016. "Contingent convertible bonds with floating coupon payments: fixing the equilibrium problem," DNB Working Papers 517, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013. "The dynamics of commodity prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 527-542, March.
    14. Chen, Jian & Qi, Shuyuan, 2024. "Limit-hitting exciting effects: Modeling jump dependencies in stock markets adhering to daily price-limit rules," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    15. Li, Junye & Favero, Carlo & Ortu, Fulvio, 2012. "A spectral estimation of tempered stable stochastic volatility models and option pricing," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3645-3658.
    16. Michael C. Fu & Bingqing Li & Rongwen Wu & Tianqi Zhang, 2020. "Option Pricing Under a Discrete-Time Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility with Co-Jump Model," Papers 2006.15054, arXiv.org.
    17. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2004. "Time-changed Levy processes and option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-141, January.
    18. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2014. "A closed-form solution for options with ambiguity about stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 125-159, July.
    19. Jovanka Lili Matic & Natalie Packham & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2023. "Hedging cryptocurrency options," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 91-133, April.
    20. Branger, Nicole & Schlag, Christian & Schneider, Eva, 2008. "Optimal portfolios when volatility can jump," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1087-1097, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Higher moments; Distributional properties; Stochastic volatility; Jump diffusion; CIR process; Square-root process;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:107:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s10182-022-00459-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.