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On variance estimation under shifts in the mean

Author

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  • Ieva Axt

    (TU Dortmund University)

  • Roland Fried

    (TU Dortmund University)

Abstract

In many situations, it is crucial to estimate the variance properly. Ordinary variance estimators perform poorly in the presence of shifts in the mean. We investigate an approach based on non-overlapping blocks, which yields good results in change-point scenarios. We show the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of such blocks-estimators of the variance under independence. Weak consistency is shown for short-range dependent strictly stationary data. We provide recommendations on the appropriate choice of the block size and compare this blocks-approach with difference-based estimators. If level shifts occur frequently and are rather large, the best results can be obtained by adaptive trimming of the blocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ieva Axt & Roland Fried, 2020. "On variance estimation under shifts in the mean," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(3), pages 417-457, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:104:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10182-020-00366-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-020-00366-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wenlin Dai & Tiejun Tong, 2014. "Variance estimation in nonparametric regression with jump discontinuities," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 530-545, March.
    2. H. Dette & A. Munk & T. Wagner, 1998. "Estimating the variance in nonparametric regression—what is a reasonable choice?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(4), pages 751-764.
    3. Inder Tecuapetla-Gómez & Axel Munk, 2017. "Autocovariance Estimation in Regression with a Discontinuous Signal and m-Dependent Errors: A Difference-Based Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(2), pages 346-368, June.
    4. Max Wornowizki & Roland Fried & Simos G. Meintanis, 2017. "Fourier methods for analyzing piecewise constant volatilities," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 101(3), pages 289-308, July.
    5. Aeneas Rooch & Ieva Zelo & Roland Fried, 2019. "Estimation methods for the LRD parameter under a change in the mean," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 313-347, February.
    6. Axel Munk & Nicolai Bissantz & Thorsten Wagner & Gudrun Freitag, 2005. "On difference‐based variance estimation in nonparametric regression when the covariate is high dimensional," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(1), pages 19-41, February.
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