IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spd/journl/v64y2014i2p14-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ex-Post and Ex-Ante Forecasts of Spot Prices in Bulk Shipping in a Period of Economic Crisis using Simultaneous Equation Models

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos D. Geomelos

    (University of the Aegean, Dept. of Shipping, Trade and Transport)

  • Evangelos Xideas

    (University of the Aegean, Dept. of Shipping, Trade and Transport)

Abstract

The paper deals with forecasting of spot prices in bulk shipping using simultaneous equations models (SEMs) during the present economic crisis, emphasizing the importance of such models in empirical applied economics and for decision-makers. The SEMs predictive performance on the spot market is estimated for a selection of eight main vessel categories, five in the tanker market and three in the dry bulk market. SEMs take into account feedback loops between the spot market and its environment. SEMs are considered more complete models as spot prices and variables such as time-charter rates, fleet deadweight capacity and prices of second-hand, newbuilding and scrap markets are determined simultaneously by the shipping markets’ operation. This approach enables estimating 29 different systems for each vessel type, generated by the combination of the aforementioned variables. The research sample period consists of an initialization data subset (1970:01-2010:02), of a subset for ex-post forecast (2010:03-2011:02) and a subset for ex-ante forecasts (2011:03-2012:02) employing monthly time series. Results reveal that simultaneous estimation of endogenous variables is described by precision and rationality while the t-tests show that exogenous variables are characterized by very high statistical significance. The out-of-sample forecasts show that SEMs provide useful information about market turning points.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos D. Geomelos & Evangelos Xideas, 2014. "Ex-Post and Ex-Ante Forecasts of Spot Prices in Bulk Shipping in a Period of Economic Crisis using Simultaneous Equation Models," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 64(2), pages 14-39, April-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:spd:journl:v:64:y:2014:i:2:p:14-39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://spoudai.unipi.gr/index.php/spoudai/article/download/107/196/107-531-1-PB.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2004. "Cost of carry, causality and arbitrage between oil futures and tanker freight markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 297-316, July.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Evangelos Xideas & Nikolaos D. Geomelos, 2011. "An empirical investigation of spot prices in tanker market using dynamic multiple regression models," International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3/4), pages 238-259.
    4. Heij, Christiaan & de Boer, Paul & Franses, Philip Hans & Kloek, Teun & van Dijk, Herman K., 2004. "Econometric Methods with Applications in Business and Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199268016.
    5. Hausman, Jerry A., 1983. "Specification and estimation of simultaneous equation models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 391-448, Elsevier.
    6. Conrad, Jennifer & Gultekin, Mustafa N & Kaul, Gautam, 1991. "Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 597-622.
    7. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Forecasting US employment growth using forecast combining methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 75-93.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. N.D. Geomelos & E. Xideas, 2014. "Forecasting spot prices in bulk shipping using multivariate and univariate models," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37, December.
    2. Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80.
    3. Brockhaus, Jan & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Kozicka, Marta, 2016. "What Drives India’s Rice Stocks? Empirical Evidence," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235659, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Yongmiao Hong & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2006. "Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Statistical Tests and Economic Evaluation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1547-1581, 2007 23.
    5. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Walter Beckert, 2019. "A Note on Specification Testing in Some Structural Regression Models," CeMMAP working papers CWP22/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Thomas J. Kane & Cecilia E. Rouse, 1993. "Labor Market Returns to Two- and Four-Year Colleges: Is a Credit a Credit and Do Degrees Matter?," NBER Working Papers 4268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1992. "Stima delle equazioni simultanee non-lineari: una rassegna [Estimation of nonlinear simultaneous equations: a survey]," MPRA Paper 24123, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1992.
    9. François-Éric Racicot & William F Rentz & David Tessier & Raymond Théoret, 2019. "The conditional Fama-French model and endogenous illiquidity: A robust instrumental variables test," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-26, September.
    10. Giovanni Forchini, 2006. "Tests for Over-identifying Restrictions in Partially Identified Linear Structural Equations," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    11. Wooldridge, J.M., 1990. "Regression-Based Inference In Linear Time Series Models With Incomplete Dynamics," Working papers 550, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    12. Caroline Hoxby & M. Daniele Paserman, 1998. "Overidentification Tests with Grouped Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Walter Beckert, 2018. "A Note on Specification Testing in Some Structural Regression Models," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1809, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    14. Jingwen Zhang & Yifang Chen & Amandeep Singh, 2022. "Causal Bandits: Online Decision-Making in Endogenous Settings," Papers 2211.08649, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    15. Yu, Chih-Hsien & Wu, Chunchi, 2001. "Economic sources of asymmetric cross-correlation among stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 19-40.
    16. Walter Beckert, 2020. "A Note on Specification Testing in Some Structural Regression Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(3), pages 686-695, June.
    17. Windmeijer, Frank, 2024. "Testing underidentification in linear models, with applications to dynamic panel and asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(2).
    18. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2023. "Bank performance before and after the subprime crisis: Evidence from pooled data on big US banks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 472-516, June.
    19. Jin Li & Ye Luo & Xiaowei Zhang, 2021. "Causal Reinforcement Learning: An Instrumental Variable Approach," Papers 2103.04021, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    20. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric methodology; simultaneous equations models; spot prices; ex-post and ex-ante forecasts; forecasting uncertainty.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spd:journl:v:64:y:2014:i:2:p:14-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depirgr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.