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Productivity or Employment: Is It a Choice?

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  • Andrea De Michelis
  • Marcello Estevão
  • Beth Anne Wilson

Abstract

Traditionally, shocks to total factor productivity (TFP) are considered exogenous and the response of employment is determined by their effect on aggregate demand. We approach the relationship between TFP and labour input differently, raising the possibility that in response to labour supply shocks firms adjust production efficiency. TFP would, thus, be endogenous to firms’ production decisions. We present cross-country evidence of a strong negative correlation between growth in TFP and labour inputs over the medium to long run. This result is robust to changing datasets, sample periods, and industry composition. To address the question of causality, we use instruments to capture changes in hours worked that are independent of TFP movements and find that TFP growth falls (increases) following a pickup (decline) in hours growth. These results have important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea De Michelis & Marcello Estevão & Beth Anne Wilson, 2013. "Productivity or Employment: Is It a Choice?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 41-60, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:25:y:2013:5
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    1. The Federal Reserve: Looking Back, Looking Forward
      by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2014-01-04 16:00:00

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    1. Kyoji Fukao & Kenta Ikeuchi & Young Gak Kim & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2017. "Innovation and Employment Growth in Japan: Analysis Based on Microdata from the Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 200-216, June.
    2. Barbara M. Fraumeni, 2013. "Comments on "Productivity or Employment: Is It a Choice?"," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 61-64, Spring.
    3. Janet L. Yellen, 2011. "Improving the international monetary and financial system : a speech at the Banque de France International Symposium, Paris, France, March 4, 2011," Speech 565, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Nicholas Oulton, 2019. "The UK and Western Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 36, pages 110-141, Spring.
    5. Camille Hémet & Clément Malgouyres, 2018. "Diversity and Employment Prospects: Neighbors Matter!," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(3), pages 825-858.
    6. Pierre St-Amant & David Tessier, 2018. "Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration," Staff Working Papers 18-15, Bank of Canada.
    7. Elise S. Brezis & Gilad Brand, 2018. "Productivity Gap between Sectors and Double Duality in Labor Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 725-749, September.
    8. Jianmin Tang, 2015. "Employment and Productivity: Exploring the Trade-off," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 28, pages 63-80, Spring.
    9. Jesús Cuaresma & Harald Oberhofer & Gallina Vincelette, 2014. "Institutional barriers and job creation in Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-29, December.
    10. Oberhofer, Harald & Vincelette, Gallina A, 2013. "Determinants of job creation in eleven new EU member states : evidence from firm level data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6533, The World Bank.
    11. Paul Conway, 2016. "Achieving New Zealand's productivity potential," Working Papers 2016/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke, 2014. "The Federal Reserve: Looking Back, Looking Forward : a speech at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, January 3, 2014," Speech 792, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Andrew Agopsowicz & Dany Brouillette & Shutao Cao & Natalia Kyui & Pierre St-Amant, 2016. "April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 16-4, Bank of Canada.
    14. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Marinko Skare, 2018. "Testing the great decoupling: a long memory approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 801-820, November.

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