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Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on “Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?”

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  • Chad Syverson

Abstract

In this article I comment on three aspects of Byrne, Oliner and Sichel’s analyses. First, I show that the patterns in labour productivity growth during the IT era echo those observed during electrification. This includes a slowdown of roughly analogous timing to that observed in 2004-2012 — a slowdown that in the electrification era was followed by a productivity growth acceleration. Second, I discuss the implications of continued divergence in mean and median incomes for the analysis of productivity growth in the long run. Third, I explore further the issue of whether technological progress in semiconductor manufacturing is yielding concomitant increases in semiconductor performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad Syverson, 2013. "Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on “Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?”," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 37-40, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:25:y:2013:4
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    File URL: http://www.csls.ca/ipm/25/IPM-25-Syverson.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    2. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, February.
    3. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Ciccarelli & Matteo Gomellini & Paolo Sestito, 2019. "Demography and Productivity in the Italian Manufacturing Industry: Yesterday and Today," CEIS Research Paper 457, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 16 May 2019.
    2. Kushlin, Valery Ivanovich (Кушлин, Валерий Иванович) & Ustenko, V.S. (Устенко, В.С.), 2016. "Analysis of International Experience of Intensification of Scientific and Innovative Activity in the Modern Unstable Conditions [Анализ Международного Опыта Активизации Научно-Инновационной Деятель," Working Papers 2832, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    3. Elona Marku & Manuel Castriotta & Michela Loi & Maria Chiara Di Guardo, 2021. "General Purpose Technology: The Blockchain Domain," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(11), pages 192-192, July.
    4. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    5. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    6. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 23-57, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Korzinov, Vladimir & Savin, Ivan, 2018. "General Purpose Technologies as an emergent property," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 88-104.
    8. Michael Dotsey, 2016. "Monetary policy and the new normal," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4, January.
    9. John G. Fernald, 2016. "Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?," Working Paper Series 2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John C. Haltiwanger & Zoltan Wolf, 2019. "Innovation, Productivity Dispersion, and Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 103-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jason Furman, 2018. "Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 317-328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chad Syverson, 2017. "Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-186, Spring.
    13. David Robinson, 2015. "The Long-term Outlook and Risks in Advanced Countries," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(2), pages 150-178, May.
    14. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Samuels, Jon D., 2016. "The impact of information technology on postwar US economic growth," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 398-411.
    15. Cao, Dan & L’Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2018. "Technological revolutions and the Three Great Slumps: A medium-run analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 93-108.
    16. Thor Berger & Carl Benedikt Frey, 2016. "Structural Transformation in the OECD: Digitalisation, Deindustrialisation and the Future of Work," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    17. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.

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