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Aging Poland: Can the Doomsday Scenario Be Avoided? (Starzejaca sie Polska. Czy mozna uniknac scenariusza katastrofy? )

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  • Grzegorz Jedrzejczak

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management)

Abstract

The Doomsday Scenario of too few workers unable to support too many pensioners dominates the public debate about travails of the Polish pension system in not so distant future of the generation currently entering the labor market. We discuss the risk of the Doomsday Scenario, and under what conditions it can be avoided. To that end, we analyze two stylized scenarios: continuation of the current model of intergenerational solidarity between current and past employees, and the case of solidarity of the society at large. We show that the narration that “there will be too few workers to support too many pensioners” is just wrong, both, in terms of necessary financial resources and emerging challenges of the global economy. Poland, as many other countries, must face the challenge of radical reform of the pension system, reform going far beyond the age of retirement. The main challenge will be bigger diversification of available financial products for financing pensions as well as broadening the base of contributors beyond workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Grzegorz Jedrzejczak, 2016. "Aging Poland: Can the Doomsday Scenario Be Avoided? (Starzejaca sie Polska. Czy mozna uniknac scenariusza katastrofy? )," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 14(59), pages 60-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgm:pzwzuw:v:14:i:59:y:2016:p:60-72
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Carone, Giuseppe & Denis, Cécile & Mc Morrow, Kieran & Mourre, Gilles & Röger, Werner, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," MPRA Paper 744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension system financing; challenge of demography; challenge of the global economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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