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Probabilistic aspects of risk management (Probabilistyczne aspekty zarz¹dzania ryzykiem)

Author

Listed:
  • Miros³aw Szreder

    (Uniwersytet Gdanski)

Abstract

The author considers reasons for the applications of particular interpretations of probability in dynamic reality. He also justifies difficulties with the use of classical and frequency interpretations in many practical cases. Risk management may require appealing to experts' opinions and implementing the personal (subjective) interpretation of probability developed by T. Bayes and L. Savage. The last part of the paper discusses controversies raised by those interpretations, and presents ways of combining experts' evaluations of probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Miros³aw Szreder, 2015. "Probabilistic aspects of risk management (Probabilistyczne aspekty zarz¹dzania ryzykiem)," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 13(55), pages 47-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgm:pzwzuw:v:13:i:55:y:2015:p:47-55
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-780, July.
    2. Piotr Białowolski & Tomasz Kuszewski & Bartosz Witkowski, 2014. "Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with application of business survey data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 53-68, February.
    3. Alex Lenkoski & Theo S. Eicher & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1-4), pages 122-151, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    probability; interpretation of probability; risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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