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Chicago and Mexico Futures Markets Asymmetries and Hedging / Asimetrías y cobertura en los mercados de futuros de México y Chicago

Author

Listed:
  • Valadez Bautista, Beatriz

    (Facultad de Contaduría y Administración, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

  • Ortiz, Edgar

    (Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

Abstract

This work investigates the hedging performance of futures contracts in two asymmetric markets, peso/dollar traded at the Mexican derivatives market (MexDer); and dollar/ peso traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall enhanced by GARCH (1,1) modeling was applied. The left and right tails of the futures return series are examined, for both short and long positions. The period analyzed comprises from October 2016 to June 2017, partitioned in three subperiods; the results obtained for each market are compared, and finally their statistical validity is tested applying Kupiec backtesting. Overall, hedging in the CME is more effective, albeit the MexDer outperforms that market several times. However, all metrics (with and without GARCH modeling added) show important weakness below the 99 percent confidence level. / Este trabajo investiga el desempeño de cobertura de contratos de futuros en dos mercados asimétricos, peso/dólar negociado en el mercado mexicano de derivados (MexDer); y dólar/peso negociado en el Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Aplicamos valor en riesgo y déficit esperado mejorado por el modelado GARCH (1,1). Se examinan las colas izquierda y derecha de las series de rendimientos de futuros, tanto para posiciones cortas como largas. El período analizado comprende de octubre de 2016 a junio de 2017, dividido en tres subperíodos; los resultados obtenidos para cada mercado se comparan, y finalmente su validez estadística se prueba aplicando backtesting Kupiec. En general, la cobertura en el CME es más eficaz, aunque el MexDer supera a ese mercado varias veces. Sin embargo, todas las métricas (con y sin el modelado GARCH agregado) muestran una debilidad importante por debajo del nivel de confianza del 99 por ciento.

Suggested Citation

  • Valadez Bautista, Beatriz & Ortiz, Edgar, 2020. "Chicago and Mexico Futures Markets Asymmetries and Hedging / Asimetrías y cobertura en los mercados de futuros de México y Chicago," Estocástica: finanzas y riesgo, Departamento de Administración de la Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Unidad Azcapotzalco, vol. 10(2), pages 221-251, julio-dic.
  • Handle: RePEc:sfr:efruam:v:10:y:2020:i:2:p:221-251
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value at Risk; Expected Shortfall; GARCH; Peso futures hedging / Value at Risk; Expected Shortfall; GARCH; Peso futures hedging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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