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A Strange Animal? The Swiss Franc Exchange Rate as a "Captured" Random Walk

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  • Christian Jochum
  • Marcel R. Savioz

Abstract

The paper aims to describe the behavior of the Swiss Franc - Deutsch Mark exchange rate between January 1980 and December 1998. Contrary to research results provided for other currencies a random walk is not sufficient to describe the empirical characteristics of the Swiss Franc. A regime switching approach shows that changes in the spot rate levels alternate between two regimes: a random walk and an autoregressive process. Mean reverting forces exist that "capture" the random walk within elastic bounds. Equally, we find that the volatility of the process is better described by a regime switching model and that low levels of volatility are associated with exchange rate movements close to a level of 0.80 SFR per DEM.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Jochum & Marcel R. Savioz, 2005. "A Strange Animal? The Swiss Franc Exchange Rate as a "Captured" Random Walk," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(IV), pages 527-553, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2005-iv-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    2. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vallet, Guillaume, 2016. "The role of the swiss franc in Switzerland’s European stance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 35-44.
    2. Bruno Thiago Tomio & Guillaume Vallet, 2021. "Carry Trade and Negative Policy Rates in Switzerland : Low-lying fog or storm ?," Post-Print halshs-03669561, HAL.
    3. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal exchange rate; regime switching; random walk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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