Bevölkerungsentwicklung und Wirtschaftswachstum. Eine Simulationsanalyse für die Schweiz

A simulation exercise of a general equilibrium model for Switzerland makes clear that the macroeconomic impacts of aging populations are not very strong. There is no need for urgent policy actions to avoid severe negative economic consequences. The more open goods, labor and capital markets are, and the more flexible an economy adjusts for demographic changes, the weaker are the macroeconomic effects. However, the aging of population affects negatively the net income of the active labor force. An increasing share of their gross salaries goes to the retirement system to finance the pension payments of a growing number of pensioners. Attempts to moderate the elderly dependency ratio would lower this burden for the active labor force. Options are an increase of the female participation rate, an increase of the labor participation rate of the elderly - what also means a higher retirement age - and an increasing flow of immigrants. But socioeconomic problems might probably generate practical limits on the extent to which immigration can be increased.