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Modelling Returns on Stock Indices for Western and Central European Stock Exchanges - a Markov Switching Approach

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  • Jedrzej Bialkowski

    (Department of Economics, European University Viadrina, Germany)

Abstract

In this paper a Markov switching mixture of normal distributions is applied to the monthly returns on the main stock indices for emerging financial markets in central Europe (BUX, PX50 and WIG). Additionally the results are compared to those obtained for western Europe (DAX, CAC40 and FTSE100). The results of model comparison suggest that the Markov switching mixture of normal distributions has substantially more descriptive validity than a single normal distribution. Nevertheless, there is no clear indication that, in modelling monthly returns, the Markov switching mixture of three normal distributions is superior to the mixture of two. Finally, the ability of the models to describe returns during international financial crises is evaluated.

Suggested Citation

  • Jedrzej Bialkowski, 2004. "Modelling Returns on Stock Indices for Western and Central European Stock Exchanges - a Markov Switching Approach," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 2(2), pages 81-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:seb:journl:v:2:y:2004:i:2:p:81-100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bulla, Jan & Mergner, Sascha & Bulla, Ingo & Sesboüé, André & Chesneau, Christophe, 2010. "Markov-switching Asset Allocation: Do Profitable Strategies Exist?," MPRA Paper 21154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jassim Aladwani, 2024. "Oil Volatility Uncertainty: Impact on Fundamental Macroeconomics and the Stock Index," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, June.
    3. Moore, Tomoe & Wang, Ping, 2007. "Volatility in stock returns for new EU member states: Markov regime switching model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 282-292.
    4. Jan Bulla, 2010. "Hidden Markov models with t components. Increased persistence and other aspects," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 459-475.
    5. Bulla, Jan & Bulla, Ingo, 2006. "Stylized facts of financial time series and hidden semi-Markov models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2192-2209, December.
    6. Wasim Ahmad & N. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2015. "Regime dependent dynamics and European stock markets: Is asset allocation really possible?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 77-107, February.
    7. Jan Bulla & Sascha Mergner & Ingo Bulla & André Sesboüé & Christophe Chesneau, 2011. "Markov-switching asset allocation: Do profitable strategies exist?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(5), pages 310-321, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching mixture of normal distributions; Modelling returns; Emerging stock markets in central Europe; International financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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