IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/scn/wnewec/y2017i4p114-125.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Процентная политика Банка России в условиях рецессии балансовых счетов // The Bank of Russia Interest-rate Policy in Terms of Balance Accounts Recession

Author

Listed:
  • S. Andryushin A.

    (Institute of Economics RAS)

  • V. Kuznetsova V.

    (M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • С. Андрюшин А.

    (Института экономики РАН)

  • В. Кузнецова В.

    (МГУ им. М. В. Ломоносова)

Abstract

The paper shows that the Bank of Russia current interest rate policy is not efficient in conditions of balance accounts recession. Inflation slowing in 2016-2017 is not driving by the Bank of Russia monetary impact measures, but by such factors as speculative capitals inflows, and pressed by it ruble’s revaluation, consumer and investment demand decrease, banks low credit activity. In financial sanctions situation, external inflow of speculative capitals intense pressure on ruble, and balance accounts recession the Bank of Russia should change the monetary policy tools, and enhance coherence of monetary, fiscal, and debt policies. It’s desirable for the Bank of Russia to deploy the financial repression mechanism under quantitative easing program, which approved by the State Duma in the third reading in April 2017. In middle term it allows to form conditions for the Russian economy transition to economic growth, to anchor long term inflation expectations, to resolve the bad debts problem, and to induce the bank’s credit activity for real economy. В статье показано, что в условиях рецессии балансовых счетов существующая процентная политика Банка России является неэффективной. Замедление темпов инфляции в 2016-2017 гг. обусловлено не мерами монетарного воздействия Банка России, а иными факторами: притоками спекулятивного капитала и вызванного этим укреплением курса рубля, снижением потребительского и инвестиционного спроса, низкой кредитной активностью банков. В условиях финансовых санкций, сильного воздействия внешнего притока спекулятивного капитала на рубль и наличия в экономике рецессии балансовых счетов Банку России следует изменить инструментарий монетарной политики и повысить степень согласованности мер денежно-кредитной, бюджетной и долговой политики. Банку России целесообразно запустить механизм финансовых репрессий, реализуемый в рамках программы количественных послаблений, утвержденной в апреле 2017 г. Государственной Думой в третьем чтении. Это позволит в среднесрочной перспективе создать условия для перехода российской экономики к экономике роста, поставить на якорь долгосрочные инфляционные ожидания, способствовать разрешению проблемы плохих долгов и повысить кредитную активность банков в реальной экономике.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Andryushin A. & V. Kuznetsova V. & С. Андрюшин А. & В. Кузнецова В., 2017. "Процентная политика Банка России в условиях рецессии балансовых счетов // The Bank of Russia Interest-rate Policy in Terms of Balance Accounts Recession," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, issue 4, pages 114-125.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:wnewec:y:2017:i:4:p:114-125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wne.fa.ru/jour/article/viewFile/156/157.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reinhart, C. M., 2012. "The return of financial repression," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 37-48, April.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
    4. Nelson, Benjamin & Tanaka, Misa, 2014. "Dealing with a banking crisis: what lessons can be learned from Japan’s experience?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 36-48.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Foreign Holdings of Public Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1155-1204.
    2. Kanat S. Isakov & Sergey E. Pekarski, 2015. "Financial Repression and Laffer Curves," HSE Working papers WP BRP 113/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Raghuram Rajan & Jack Shim, 2020. "When is Debt Odious? A Theory of Repression and Growth Traps," NBER Working Papers 27221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gerhard R?sl & Karl-Heinz T?dter, 2015. "The Costs and Welfare Effects of ECB's Financial Repression Policy: Consequences for German Savers," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 5, pages 42-59, November.
    5. Acharya, Viral V. & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Shim, Jack B., 2024. "Sovereign debt and economic growth when government is myopic and self-interested," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2014. "Banking crises and sovereign defaults in emerging markets: exploring the links," Working Papers 1414, Banco de España.
    8. Ichiro Fukunaga & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 124-137, January.
    9. Maixé-Altés, J. Carles & Iglesias, Emma M., 2015. "Banking, Currency, Stock Market and Debt Crises: Revisiting Reinhart & Rogoff Debt Analysis in Spain, 1850-1995," MPRA Paper 68199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Norkina, O. & Pekarski, S., 2015. "Nonmarket Debt Placement As Financial Repression," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 31-55.
    11. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2018. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 617-664, December.
    12. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2015. "Business Cycles, Credit Cycles and Bank Holdings of Sovereign Bonds: Historical Evidence for Italy 1861-2013," CESifo Working Paper Series 5318, CESifo.
    13. van Riet, Ad, 2018. "Financial repression and high public debt in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 3391dd73-357a-4071-825c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Halep Maria, 2013. "Reducing Public Debt in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: Renewing with Financial Repression," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 37-42, May.
    15. Bastien Drut, 2013. "La répression financière est-elle la solution pour « liquider » la dette publique dans la zone euro ?," Working Papers CEB 13-003, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Agnello, Luca & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Can re-regulation of the financial sector strike back public debt?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 159-171.
    17. van Riet, Ad, 2016. "Government Funding Privileges in European Financial Law : Making Public Debt Everybody's Favourite?," Other publications TiSEM b1290139-3e4e-4a2d-a783-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Caio Ferreira & Nigel Jenkinson & Mr. Luc Laeven & Alberto Martin & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Alex Popov, 2018. "Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2018/016, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Andreas Hoffmann, 2014. "Zero-interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1367-1387, October.
    20. Olga A. Norkina & Sergey E. Pekarski, 2014. "Optimal Financial Repression," HSE Working papers WP BRP 81/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scn:wnewec:y:2017:i:4:p:114-125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Алексей Скалабан (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://worldneweconomy.elpub.ru .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.