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Количественная оценка влияния антироссийских санкций на внешнюю торговлю стран-санкционеров // Evaluation of the Sanctions Impact on Sanctioning Countries’ Trade with Russia

Author

Listed:
  • S. Kazantsev V.

    (Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk)

  • С. Казанцев В.

    (ФГБУН «Институт экономики и организации промышленного производства СО РАН», Новосибирск)

Abstract

The aim of this paper was to present some results of the study of the impact of the sanctions, imposed on the Russian Federation in 2014 and consistently expanded and deepened, not on Russia, but on those who use these sanctions — the countries that imposed the sanctions (the sanctioners). External trade, that is one of the objects of the sanctions, was chosen as the subject of the study. The author’s task was to estimate the role of the Russian Federation in the external trade of the countries, which use the sanctions against Russia, before and after the sanctions, and to evaluate the harm caused to these countries by their sanctions and by Russia’s counter-sanctions. To solve these problems, the author proposed a mathematical tool for the damage quantitative assessment. The World Trade Organization statistics for 2012–2017 formed a database for the study, and economic-mathematical and statistical methods were taken as research instruments. One may summarize the results of the study as follows. First, Russia plays an insignificant role in foreign trade of most countries that imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation. However, the damage from the sanctions and counter-sanctions for some of them turns out to be quite significant. Second, the negative impact of the sanctions on their initiators in the sphere of external trade is the stronger, the more important for the sanctioning country its trade relations with the Russian Federation are. Third, the burden of the sanctions was less heavy for their main initiator — the united States of America, than for their less economically strong partners that imposed the sanctions. The author’s main conclusion is that eventually the economic interests of some of these countries win up over the political goals that go against these interests, and the volume of the foreign trade, that dropped down after the sanctions were imposed on Russia, tends to recover. Russia, shifting from the overseas markets to the domestic one and changing the geographical structure of its international trade, does continue to develop. To present the results of the study to the Russian readers, the version of the article in Russian is submitted to the journal “The World of New Economy”. Its title is “Anti-Russian Sanctions: Damage to the Countries that Declared them”. The version gives the results of the analysis of the impact of sanctions on technology trade and the content of the study of foreign trade in goods, detailed in this paper. Целью написания данной работы было исследование влияния принятых в 2014 г. в отношении Российский Федерации и последовательно расширяемых и углубляемых санкций не на Россию, а на тех, кто ввел эти санкции — на страны-санкционеры. В качестве предмета исследования был выбран один из объектов санкционного воздействия — внешняя торговля. Задача автора состояла в количественной оценке роли Российской Федерации во внешней торговле стран-санкционеров до и после введения антироссийских санкций и потерь стран-санкционеров от введенных ими санкций и от российских контрсанкций. Для решения этой задачи автор предложил математический инструментарий оценки. Статистической базой исследования служили данные Всемирной торговой организации за 2012–2017 гг., инструментарием — экономико-математические и статистические методы. Показано, во-первых, что роль Российской Федерации во внешней торговле большинства стран, в которых действуют антироссийские санкции, невелика, тем не менее ущерб от санкций и контрсанкций для части из них оказывается довольно весомым. Во-вторых, что негативное влияние санкций на их инициаторов в сфере внешней торговли тем сильнее, чем важнее для страны-санкцинера ее торговые связи с Российской Федерацией. В-третьих, что бремя санкций оказалось более тяжелым не для их главного инициатора — США, а для менее экономически сильных партнеров США по антироссийским санкциям. Главный вывод автора состоит в том, что со временем экономические интересы части стран-санкционеров берут верх над идущими в разрез с ними политическими целями, и сократившиеся в результате введения антироссийских санкций объемы внешней торговли имеют тенденцию к восстановлению. Россия же, переориентируясь с внешнего рынка на внутренний и меняя географическую структуру внешней торговли, продолжает развиваться. Для ознакомления российских читателей с результатами исследования вариант статьи представлен в журнал «Мир новой экономики» под заголовком: «Антироссийские санкции: ущерб объявившим их странам». В нем дан анализ влияние санкций на торговлю технологиями и изложены результаты исследования внешней торговли товарами, подробно представленные в настоящей статье.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Kazantsev V. & С. Казанцев В., 2019. "Количественная оценка влияния антироссийских санкций на внешнюю торговлю стран-санкционеров // Evaluation of the Sanctions Impact on Sanctioning Countries’ Trade with Russia," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 23(3), pages 6-15.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2019:i:3:p:6-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2007. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (hardcover)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4075, January.
    2. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2009. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd Edition (paper)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4129, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    F49; F51; H56; F49; F51; H56; anti-Russia sanctions; sanction imposed countries; exports; imports; trade; damage; the Russian Federation; антироссийские санкции; страны-санкционеры; экспорт; импорт; товарооборот; ущерб; Российская Федерация;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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