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Эмпирический Анализ Влияния Экономических И Неэкономических Факторов Оттока Капитала: Пример Построения Эконометрической Модели // An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Economic And Non-Economic Factors Of Capital Flight: An Example Of The Econometric Model

Author

Listed:
  • E. Markovskaya I.

    (National Research University “Higher School of Economics”)

  • A. Belov V.

    (National Research University “Higher School of Economics”)

  • Е. Марковская И.

    (Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»)

  • А. Белов В.

    (Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»)

Abstract

Article Retracted.The paper presents the results of a study related to the assessment of the impact of economic and non-economic factors on the international export of capital.The purpose of the study was an econometric assessment of the influence of some economic and non-economic indices on the export of capital in 2015 throughconstruction of a consistent econometric model.To select a method for the capital outflow evaluation for the research purposes, three potential methods for measuring the scale of the capital escape from the country are analyzed: the CBR method, the World Bank method and assessment of direct foreign investments. The authors exposed methodological differences in approaches to evaluating the amount of capital outflow to be taken into account in such studies.In the course of the study a number of regression models were developed and some of them confirmed the existence of the relationship between capital outflow and non-economic factors.It is concluded that the non-economic factors influence the magnitude of capital outflow from the national economy and political events may significantly affect the decisions of investors. In our models, non-economic factors such as presidential and parliamentary elections, time to start a business have an impact on the amount of capital outflow. The study is a part of the research work related to the development of the matrix of the Russian economy investment climate. [1] Subsequent research activities may include the construction of a model to analyze the influence of economic and non-economic factors on the capital outflow amount in different types of national economies (for example, in developed and developing countries). This will make it possible to use simulation results to predict amounts of the capital outflow from the Russian economy.The research findings can be used in the practice of the development of the economic and investment policies at the macro and the micro levels, the national economylevel as well as at the regional level Статья отозвана.В статье представлены результаты исследования, посвященного оценке влияния экономических и неэкономических факторов на международный экспорт капитала. Целью исследования являлась эконометрическая оценка влияния некоторых экономических и неэкономических показателей на экспорт капитала за 2015 г. путем построения состоятельной эконометрической модели. В ходе исследования было разработано несколько регрессионных моделей, некоторые из которых подтвердили наличие взаимосвязи между оттоком капитала и неэкономическими факторами. Был сделан вывод о том, что неэкономические факторы оказывают влияние на величину оттока капитала из национальной экономики, а политические события существенным образом могут влиять на решения инвесторов. В наших моделях такие неэкономические факторы, как президентские и парламентские выборы, время, связанное с возможностью начать бизнес, оказывают влияние на величину оттока капитала. Проведенное исследование является частью нашей научной работы, связанной с изучением и формированием матрицы инвестиционного климата российской экономики [1]. Одним из дальнейших возможных направлений исследования может быть следующее - построение модели, которая бы позволила проанализировать степень влияния экономических и неэкономических факторов на величину оттока капитала в разных типах национальных экономик (например, в развитых и развивающихся странах). Это позволит использовать результаты моделирования для прогнозирования величины оттока капитала из российской экономики.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Markovskaya I. & A. Belov V. & Е. Марковская И. & А. Белов В., 2017. "Эмпирический Анализ Влияния Экономических И Неэкономических Факторов Оттока Капитала: Пример Построения Эконометрической Модели // An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Economic And Non-Economic Fact," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 21(2), pages 121-131.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2017:i:2:p:121-131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
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