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Формирование Финансовых Пузырей На Стадии Роста Экономической Системы // Financial Bubble Formation At The Growth Stage Of An Economic System

Author

Listed:
  • S. Tolkachev A.

    (Financial University)

  • A. Popov K.

    (State University of Management)

  • С. Толкачев А.

    (Финансовый университет)

  • А. Попов К.

    (Государственный университет управления)

Abstract

The paper studies the links between the financial bubble phenomenon manifested by the irrational growth of stock indices and development stages of Kondratiev long waves followed by the investigation of Glazyev technological patterns. The relevance of the paper is predetermined by the predicted transition of the global economy to the growth phase after the end of the current crisis, the new round of education and the deflation of financial bubbles.. The stable trends in the origination and development of financial bubbles within the long wave growth phase are described by an example of the US economy. With the use of economic statistics, the financial bubbles most typical for the growth phase are determined and the reasons for their formation are described. The case study of the US aircraft industry reveals divergent trends in the value of shares of the largest US aircraft maker Boeing and the total factor performance over the industry. On this basis, a time lag is set between the decline in the total performance factors of the 4-th pattern technologies (aircraft making) and the value of shares at the beginning of the 5-th pattern, which proves the supposed presence of a financial bubble. An attempt is made to identify financial bubbles specific for the economic growth phase within the long-wave development. Based on works of C. Perez,Soete and V. E. Dementiev, a retrospective analysis of the US economy so far as relevant to the definition of the periods and reasons for the financial bubble formation is made. The life cycle of an institutional financial bubble is analyzed and a bubble formation diagram in the growth phase is presented. Based on the hypothetic time of the final establishment of the general picture of mainstream technologies, the periodization of the sixth technological pattern stages is forecasted, which can be helpful in the development of the state R&D and innovation policy. Статья посвящена исследованию связей между феноменом финансовых пузырей в виде необоснованного роста фондовых индексов и этапами развития длинных циклов конъюнктуры Н. Д. Кондратьева, продолженных исследованиями технологических укладов С. Ю. Глазьева. Актуальность статьи предопределена прогнозируемым переходом мировой экономики в фазу роста после окончания текущего кризиса и нового витка образования и схлопывания финансовых пузырей. Раскрывается тезис о наличии устойчивых тенденций в формировании и развитии финансовых пузырей в рамках фазы роста длинных волн, описанный на примере экономики США. С помощью методов экономической статистики определены наиболее характерные для фазы роста финансовые пузыри и представлены причины их формирования. На примере авиастроительной отрасли США выявлены разнонаправленные тренды стоимости акций крупнейшей авиастроительной компании США Boeing и совокупной факторной производительности всей отрасли. На этой основе установлен временной лаг между снижением совокупной производительности факторов производства технологий четвертого уклада (авиастроение) и стоимостью акций в начале развития пятого уклада, что доказывает предположение о наличии финансового пузыря. Проведена работа по выявлению финансовых пузырей, характерных для фазы роста экономики в рамках длинноволнового развития. На основании работ К. Перес, Л. Соете и В. Е. Дементьева проведен ретроспективный анализ экономики США в части определения периодов и причин формирования финансовых пузырей. Проанализирован жизненный цикл институционального финансового пузыря и представлена схема последовательности формирования финансовых пузырей в фазе роста. На основе гипотезы сроков окончательной инсталляции общего образа магистральных технологий спрогнозирована периодизация этапов развития шестого технологического уклада (ТУ), что можно использовать при разработке государственной научно-технической и инновационной политики.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Tolkachev A. & A. Popov K. & С. Толкачев А. & А. Попов К., 2015. "Формирование Финансовых Пузырей На Стадии Роста Экономической Системы // Financial Bubble Formation At The Growth Stage Of An Economic System," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, issue 2, pages 84-95.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2015:i:2:p:84-95
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carlota Perez, 2002. "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2640, March.
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