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Бюджетная Политика И Экономический Рост В России. Оптимальное Бюджетное Правило

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  • Скрыпник Д.В.

Abstract

ЦЭМИ РАН, Москва, Россия skrypnikdv@gmail.com Разделы 1-4 статьи подготовлены при финансовой поддержки РФФИ (проект 17-02-00524-ОГН). Работа была выполнена под научным руководством академика РАН, д.э.н. В.М. Полтеровича, которому автор признателен за участие и плодотворные обсуждения. Автор выражает благодарность д.э.н., профессору М.Ю. Афанасьеву и члену-корреспонденту РАН, д.э.н. М.Ю. Головнину за ценные комментарии, а также анонимному рецензенту, чьи замечания позволили существенно улучшить статью. Вся ответственность за возможные неточности и опечатки лежит на авторе. Аннотация. В работе на основе макроэкономической модели российской экономики анализируется бюджетная политика в России в период бурного роста на нефть 2000-х годов. Новизна работы состоит в демонстрации неоптимальной бюджетной политики в соответствующий период - фактический уровень государственных расходов в стране был ниже оптимального. Основной механизм возникновения роста по оптимальному сценарию связан с масштабирующим эффектом государственных расходов, расширяющим производственные возможности экономики. Адекватная монетарная политика позволяет не допустить раскручивания инфляционной спирали, а запустить спираль экономического роста. Неоптимальность бюджетной политики является следствием особенности механизма бюджетного правила, не учитывающего влияния государственных расходов на экономический рост, что соответствует типу управления по разомкнутому контуру (не учитывается обратная связь между управляемой и управляющей переменной). Бюджетное правило, реализующее управление по замкнутому контуру (учитывается и прямая, и обратная связи) и позволяющее конструировать оптимальную экономическую политику для развивающихся стран, может стать основой формирования системы управления ростом, сочетающей универсальное планирование, т.е. охватывающее всю экономику, и программное планирование, реализующее отдельные проекты. Ключевым принципом такого правила должен стать принцип нащупывания экономического равновесия.

Suggested Citation

  • Скрыпник Д.В., 2019. "Бюджетная Политика И Экономический Рост В России. Оптимальное Бюджетное Правило," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 24-40, апрель.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:55:y:2019:i:2:p:24-40
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    1. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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