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Статистический Метод Агрегирования Производственных Функций

Author

Listed:
  • Гребнев М.И.
  • Шульц Д.Н.

Abstract

Рассматривается проблема агрегирования производственных функций (ПФ), которая представляет собой частную задачу в рамках более широкого направления исследований, связанных с поиском теоретических и методологических мостов между микро- и макроэкономикой. Предыдущие исследования известных экономистов показали, что задача непротиворечивого агрегирования производственных функций не имеет удовлетворительного и общепризнанного решения. В статье показано, что непротиворечивое агрегирование ПФ возможно только в случае линейных ПФ. Предложен статистический метод агрегирования, после чего, основываясь на принципах байесовского оценивания и законе больших чисел, становится возможным оценить макроэкономическую ПФ. В предположении, что параметры ПФ отраслей экономики США распределены по нормальному закону, выведена макроэкономическая ПФ. Показано, что даже если все отраслевые ПФ являются ПФ Кобба–Дугласа, то макроэкономическая ПФ будет отлична от ПФ Кобба–Дугласа. Для российской экономики макроэкономическая ПФ сформирована на основе отраслевых и региональных ПФ Кобба–Дугласа. Показано, что в условиях ограниченности статистических данных более корректные оценки агрегированной ПФ по России могут быть получены на основе региональных ПФ.

Suggested Citation

  • Гребнев М.И. & Шульц Д.Н., 2016. "Статистический Метод Агрегирования Производственных Функций," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 52(2), pages 112-128, апрель.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:52:y:2016:i:2:p:112-128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ершов Эмиль Борисович, 2013. "Композитные Производственные Функции," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 17(1), pages 108-129.
    2. Jesus Felipe & Franklin M. Fisher, 2003. "Aggregation in Production Functions: What Applied Economists should Know," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 208-262, May.
    3. Jesus Felipe & John S.L. McCombie, 2013. "The Aggregate Production Function and the Measurement of Technical Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1975.
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