Efeitos dos termos de troca externos sobre os preços e a produção doméstica: uma análise de equilíbrio geral

This work analyzes how domestic prices and production react to changes in international terms of trade, subsidies and incentives to production of exportable goods. Previous works have dealt with some of these effects upon the Brazilian economy, but their focus was restricted to the interaction between export agriculture and agriculture destined for the domestic market. Here we also take into account interactions with the industrial sector by using a general equilibrium model. In section two, we build a theoretical model, showing that the effect of a change in the international terms of trade upon the real price of domestic goods depends only on the ranking of factor intensities on the sectors to be considered. An improvement in the international terms of trade lead to an increase in the real price of the domestic good only when the industrial sector is more intensive in capital (or labor) than the three sectors considered. In section three we show that the effect of a change in the international terms of trade on the quantity of gaods produced does not depend only on factorial intensities but also on consumer preference. An improvement in the terms of trade will always increase the production of exportable goods and decrease the production of domestic goods, as long as we admit that both goods are gross complements (or independent) that the domestic good is inferior, and that the import sector is more intensive in capital (or labor) than the three sectors of the economy.