IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/urbstu/v52y2015i2p279-297.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Stevenson

    (University of Reading, UK)

  • James Young

    (University of Auckland, New Zealand)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(2), pages 279-297, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:52:y:2015:i:2:p:279-297
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098014529341
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0042098014529341
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0042098014529341?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Bulow, Jeremy & Klemperer, Paul, 1996. "Auctions versus Negotiations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 180-194, March.
    3. Mireia Jofre-Bonet & Martin Pesendorfer, 2003. "Estimation of a Dynamic Auction Game," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1443-1489, September.
    4. Jeitschko, Thomas D., 1999. "Equilibrium price paths in sequential auctions with stochastic supply," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 67-72, July.
    5. Seow Eng Ong, 2006. "Price Discovery in Real Estate Auctions: The Story of Unsuccessful Attempts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(1), pages 39-60.
    6. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1981. "A Theory of Monopoly Pricing Schemes with Demand Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 347-365, June.
    7. R. Preston McAfee & Daniel C. Quan & Daniel R. Vincent, 2002. "How to Set Minimum Acceptable Bids, with an Application to Real Estate Auctions," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 391-416, December.
    8. Saidi, Reza & Marsden, James R., 1992. "Number of bids, number of bidders and bidding behavior in outer-continental shelf oil lease auction markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 335-343, May.
    9. Mayer Christopher J., 1995. "A Model of Negotiated Sales Applied to Real Estate Auctions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Wang, Ruqu, 1993. "Auctions versus Posted-Price Selling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 838-851, September.
    11. Paul Klemperer (ed.), 2000. "The Economic Theory of Auctions," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 1669.
    12. French, Kenneth R & McCormick, Robert E, 1984. "Sealed Bids, Sunk Costs, and the Process of Competition," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(4), pages 417-441, October.
    13. McAfee, R. Preston & McMillan, John, 1987. "Auctions with a stochastic number of bidders," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Ashenfelter, Orley & Genesove, David, 1992. "Testing for Price Anomalies in Real-Estate Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 501-505, May.
    15. Joseph T.L. Ooi & C.F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 2006. "Price Formation Under Small Numbers Competition: Evidence from Land Auctions in Singapore," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 51-76, March.
    16. Daniel C. Quan, 2002. "Market Mechanism Choice and Real Estate Disposition: Search Versus Auction," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 365-384.
    17. Stevenson, Simon & Young, James & Gurdgiev, Constantin, 2010. "A comparison of the appraisal process for auction and private treaty residential sales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-154, June.
    18. Nautz, D. & Wolfstetter, E., 1997. "Bid shading and risk aversion in multi-unit auctions with many bidders," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 195-200, October.
    19. William Vickrey, 1961. "Counterspeculation, Auctions, And Competitive Sealed Tenders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 8-37, March.
    20. Theo Offerman, 2002. "Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 625-643, June.
    21. Richard J. Gilbert & Paul Klemperer, 2000. "An Equilibrium Theory of Rationing," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 1-21, Spring.
    22. Milgrom, Paul, 1989. "Auctions and Bidding: A Primer," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    23. Colin Campbell & Dan Levin, 2006. "When and why not to auction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(3), pages 583-596, April.
    24. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
    25. Marcus T. Allen & Judith Swisher, 2000. "An Analysis of the Price Formation Process at a HUD Auction," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 20(3), pages 279-298.
    26. Christopher J. Mayer, 1998. "Assessing the Performance of Real Estate Auctions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 41-66, March.
    27. Jacob K. Goeree & Theo Offerman, 2003. "Competitive Bidding in Auctions with Private and Common Values," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 598-613, July.
    28. Lusht, Kenneth M, 1994. "Order and Price in a Sequential Auction," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 259-266, May.
    29. Larry DeBoer & James Conrad & Kevin T. McNamara, 1992. "Property Tax Auction Sales," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 68(1), pages 72-82.
    30. Adams, Paul D & Kluger, Brian D & Wyatt, Steve B, 1992. "Integrating Auction and Search Markets: The Slow Dutch Auction," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 239-253, September.
    31. Levin, Dan & Kagel, John H & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1996. "Revenue Effects and Information Processing in English Common Value Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 442-460, June.
    32. Robert Zeithammer, 2007. "Research Note--Strategic Bid-Shading and Sequential Auctioning with Learning from Past Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1510-1519, September.
    33. Ching, Stephen & Fu, Yuming, 2003. "Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong land auctions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 695-720, October.
    34. Mark G. Dotzour & Everard Moorhead & Daniel T. Winkler, 1998. "The Impact of Auctions on Residential Sales Prices in New Zealand," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 57-72.
    35. Holt, Charles A, Jr, 1979. "Uncertainty and the Bidding for Incentive Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 697-705, September.
    36. Simon Stevenson, 2008. "Modeling Housing Market Fundamentals: Empirical Evidence of Extreme Market Conditions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-29, March.
    37. Robert Wilson, 1977. "A Bidding Model of Perfect Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(3), pages 511-518.
    38. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September.
    39. Seow Eng Ong & Kenneth Lusht & Chee Yong Mak, 2005. "Factors Influencing Auction Outcomes: Bidder Turnout, Auction Houses and Market Conditions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 27(2), pages 177-192.
    40. Michel Glower & Donald R. Haurin & Patric H. Hendershott, 1998. "Selling Time and Selling Price: The Influence of Seller Motivation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 719-740, December.
    41. Jeroen M. Swinkels & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2000. "Efficiency and Information Aggregation in Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 499-525, June.
    42. Gustavo Vulcano & Garrett van Ryzin & Costis Maglaras, 2002. "Optimal Dynamic Auctions for Revenue Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(11), pages 1388-1407, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erling Røed Larsen, 2021. "Intra‐Week Price Patterns in the Housing Market," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 327-352, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "The Role of Undisclosed Reserves in English Open Outcry Auctions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 375-402, June.
    2. Stevenson, Simon & Young, James & Gurdgiev, Constantin, 2010. "A comparison of the appraisal process for auction and private treaty residential sales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-154, June.
    3. Yuen Leng Chow & Joseph T.L. Ooi, 2014. "First-Price Sealed-Bid Tender versus English Open Auction: Evidence from Land Auctions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 253-278, June.
    4. Yuen Leng Chow & Isa E. Hafalir & Abdullah Yavas, 2015. "Auction versus Negotiated Sale: Evidence from Real Estate Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 432-470, June.
    5. Jianfu Shen & Frederik Pretorius & K. W. Chau, 2018. "Land Auctions with Budget Constraints," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 443-471, April.
    6. Carl R. Gwin & Seow-Eng Ong & Andrew C. Spieler, 2005. "Auctions and Land Values: An Experimental Analysis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(12), pages 2245-2259, November.
    7. Zan Yang & Rongrong Ren & Hongyu Liu & Huan Zhang, 2015. "Land leasing and local government behaviour in China: Evidence from Beijing," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(5), pages 841-856, April.
    8. Abdul - Rasheed Amidu & Alirat Olayinka Agboola, 2009. "Empirical Evidence Of The Influences On First-Price Bid Auction Premiums," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 157-170.
    9. Stephen Buschbom & Carolyn Dehring & Neil Dunse & Henry Munneke, 2018. "Sealed-Bid Auctions and Fixed Price Sales: Seller Choice in Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 525-545, May.
    10. Seow Eng Ong, 2006. "Price Discovery in Real Estate Auctions: The Story of Unsuccessful Attempts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(1), pages 39-60.
    11. Han, Lu & Strange, William C., 2015. "The Microstructure of Housing Markets," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 813-886, Elsevier.
    12. Stefan Seifert & Silke Hüttel, 2023. "Is there a risk of a winner’s curse in farmland auctions?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(3), pages 1140-1177.
    13. Theo Offerman, 2002. "Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 625-643, June.
    14. Theo Offerman & Giorgia Romagnoli & Andreas Ziegler, 2022. "Why are open ascending auctions popular? The role of information aggregation and behavioral biases," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 787-823, May.
    15. Jarl G. Kallberg & Crocker H. Liu & Adam Nowak, 2021. "An Empirical Analysis of Double Round Auctions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 531-555, June.
    16. Roberto Burguet, 2000. "Auction theory: a guided tour," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(1), pages 3-50, January.
    17. Zhang, Yunyi & Gong, Pu, 2018. "IPV model with Cobb–Douglas and reference-dependent utility functions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 121-131.
    18. Habib, Michel A. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2007. "Why government bonds are sold by auction and corporate bonds by posted-price selling," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 343-367, July.
    19. Takako Idee & Shinichiro Iwata & Teruyuki Taguchi, 2011. "Auction Price Formation with Costly Occupants: Evidence Using Data from the Osaka District Court," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 84-98, January.
    20. Haile,P.A., 1999. "Auctions with resale," Working papers 33, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:52:y:2015:i:2:p:279-297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.gla.ac.uk/departments/urbanstudiesjournal .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.