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Ten New Propositions in UK Housing Macroeconomics: An Overview of the First Years of the Century

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  • Geoffrey Meen

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading, Whiteknights, PO Box 219, Reading, RG6 6AW, UK, g.p.meen@reading.ac.uk)

Abstract

In the mid 1990s, Meen set out a series of propositions concerning the relationship between housing and the macro economy during the 1980s and early 1990s. This paper provides 10 further propositions for the early years of this century, taking into account recent research and policy concerns. The first five propositions concern housing market risk, whereas the remaining issues deal with the sustainability of homeownership. The empirical evidence presented finds that there is limited evidence for bubbles over the past 10 years and models of house prices are stable. Furthermore, housing possessions are unlikely to fall to the levels observed in the early 1980s. It is also suggested that the private rental market may not expand at the same rate as in the past 10 years, but there are risks to homeowners down the income distribution. Finally, the main beneficiaries of new affordability targets may be existing rather than new households.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey Meen, 2008. "Ten New Propositions in UK Housing Macroeconomics: An Overview of the First Years of the Century," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(13), pages 2759-2781, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:45:y:2008:i:13:p:2759-2781
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098008098205
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Andr頍 & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Testing for persistence in housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in 16 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2127-2138, June.
    2. Jinke Li & Geoffrey Meen, 2016. "Agent Based Models, Housing Fluctuations and the Role of Heterogeneous Expectations," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2016-09, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    3. Huayi Yu, 2015. "The spillovers and heterogeneous responses of housing prices: a GVAR analysis of China's 35 major cities," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 535-558, October.
    4. Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2016. "Endogenous UK Housing Cycles and the Risk Premium: Understanding the Next Housing Crisis," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2016-02, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    5. Geoffrey Meen, 2012. "The Adjustment of Housing Markets to Migration Change: Lessons from Modern History," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 500-522, November.

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