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Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Airline Passenger Flows among Three Major Australian Cities

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  • Jae H. Kim

    (Department of Economics and Finance, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria 3086, Australia)

  • Monique T. Ngo

    (Ratio Consultants Pty Ltd, ‘Riverwalk’, First Floor, 649 Bridge Road, Richmond, Victoria 3121, Australia)

Abstract

The authors examine statistical properties of time series data for the monthly numbers of airline passengers for three major Australian city-pairs (Brisbane–Melbourne, Sydney–Melbourne and Sydney–Brisbane). It is found that the three time series show a co-movement in the long run, each exhibiting a stochastic trend and deterministic seasonality. The impulse response analysis is conducted to examine how these time series are related in the short run. The bootstrap method is used to test for the statistical significance of impulse response estimates. The evidence suggests that the time series for the Sydney–Melbourne route is highly influential on the others in the short run. A number of univariate and multivariate time series models are used for forecasting. It is found that univariate methods generate more accurate forecasts than multivariate models.

Suggested Citation

  • Jae H. Kim & Monique T. Ngo, 2001. "Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Airline Passenger Flows among Three Major Australian Cities," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(4), pages 397-412, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:7:y:2001:i:4:p:397-412
    DOI: 10.5367/000000001101297946
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    Cited by:

    1. Chunla Liu & Yingjie Qin & Yufei Wang & Yue Yu & Guanghui Li, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Tourism Flows and Network Analysis of Traditional Villages in Western Hunan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Amitrajeet Batabyal, 2007. "A probabilistic analysis of a scheduling problem in the economics of tourism," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 12(4), pages 1-7.
    3. Coshall, John T. & Charlesworth, Richard, 2011. "A management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 759-769.
    4. John Trevor Coshall, 2005. "A Selection Strategy for Modelling UK Tourism Flows by Air to European Destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 141-158, June.
    5. Athanasopoulos, George & Deng, Minfeng & Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Modelling substitution between domestic and outbound tourism in Australia: A system-of-equations approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 159-170.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:12:y:2007:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Liang Zhu & Christine Lim & Wenjun Xie & Yuan Wu, 2017. "Analysis of tourism demand serial dependence structure for forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1419-1436, November.

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