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The Use of Markov Chains to Estimate Destination Switching and Market Share

Author

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  • Jeong-Gil Choi
  • Jin-Won Mok
  • Jin-Soo Han

Abstract

The Markov chain model provides researchers and policy makers with a means to predict travellers' choices of destination. This study predicts international tourist flows among three Asian countries and the USA, and provides a path for gauging the switching patterns of tourists from one country to another. Destination loyalty (hard core component) and the future market share for 2009 and 2010 were estimated. The findings provide necessary information to many interest groups, including government policy makers, travel companies, airline companies and researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeong-Gil Choi & Jin-Won Mok & Jin-Soo Han, 2011. "The Use of Markov Chains to Estimate Destination Switching and Market Share," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(6), pages 1181-1196, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:17:y:2011:i:6:p:1181-1196
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2011.0091
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    Cited by:

    1. Da Huo, 2013. "Cluster Analysis of Market Potential in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Research based on Markov Chain," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 218-231, December.
    2. Angela Blazheska & Igor Ivanovski, 2021. "Determinants of the market choice and the consumers behavior on the Macedonian MTPL insurance market: Empirical application of the Markov chain model," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 311-331, September.

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