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Research Note: World Tourism Forecasting – Keep It Quick, Simple and Dirty

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  • Egon Smeral

Abstract

Building multivariate causal models for world tourism or world subregions could be very difficult as the necessary short-term information, such as monthly data on the independent variables determining tourism demand, is either not available or very labour and cost intensive to obtain. In order to solve the short-term forecast problem on a global scale, a quasi-causal model was constructed to explain international arrivals. This model was based on a REGARIMA approach, which used as its exogenous variable the flexible trend of the arrivals being explained through the model. The flexible trend was identified by the HP-filter method and indicated in the model important exogenous aggregated information. ARIMA models were developed and ‘absolute no change’ forecast values computed in order to benchmark the forecast accuracy of the REGARIMA model. The study demonstrated that the simple ARIMA approach could not, in general, be outperformed by the more complex quasi-causal REGARIMA approach. Both time series approaches outperformed the ‘absolute no change model’.

Suggested Citation

  • Egon Smeral, 2007. "Research Note: World Tourism Forecasting – Keep It Quick, Simple and Dirty," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(2), pages 309-317, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:13:y:2007:i:2:p:309-317
    DOI: 10.5367/000000007780823122
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Baggio, Rodolfo & Sainaghi, Ruggero, 2016. "Mapping time series into networks as a tool to assess the complex dynamics of tourism systems," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 23-33.
    2. Habibi, Fateh & Abdul Rahim, Khalid & Chin, Lee, 2008. "United Kingdom and United States Tourism Demand for Malaysia:A Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 13590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    4. Egon Smeral, 2009. "Mögliche Auswirkungen der Finanz- und Konjunkturkrise auf den österreichischen Tourismus," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34879, April.
    5. Egon Smeral, 2010. "Tourismusstrategische Ausrichtung 2015 – Wachstum durch Strukturwandel," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 40675, April.

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