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Long-Term Forecasts for International Tourism

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  • Egon Smeral

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research, PO Box 91, 1103 Vienna, Austria, and Institute of Management, Service Economics and Tourism, University of Innsbruck, Universitätsstraße 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria)

Abstract

Modifications of earlier versions of models to make forecasts for world tourism allow us to trace the effects of changes in income and prices produced by and in each individual country considered in this model. At the theoretical level, in using a share approach these models could be viewed as similar to partial demand models based on the assumption of a multi-stage budgeting process. The new WTTOUR-2001 model is used to generate long-term forecasts of tourism imports and exports for 25 countries for the period up to 2020. It allows a more realistic simulation of the impact of political events such as the enlargement of the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Egon Smeral, 2004. "Long-Term Forecasts for International Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(2), pages 145-166, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:10:y:2004:i:2:p:145-166
    DOI: 10.5367/000000004323142461
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dora L. Costa, 1997. "Less of a Luxury: The Rise of Recreation since 1888," NBER Working Papers 6054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helena Nemec Rudez, 2018. "The Relationship between Income and Tourism Demand: Old Findings and New Research," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 11(1), pages 67-73.
    2. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO.
    3. Carmen D. à lvarez-Albelo & Raúl Hernández-Martín, 2009. "Specialization in Luxury Goods, Productivity Gaps and the Rapid Growth of Small Tourism Countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(3), pages 567-589, September.
    4. Petrevska, Biljana, 2012. "Forecasting International Tourism Demand: The Evidence Of Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 3(1), pages 45-55.
    5. Federico Inchausti-Sintes & Ubay Pérez-Granja, 2022. "Monetary policy and exchange rate regime in tourist islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(2), pages 325-348, March.

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