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Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? The Case of India

Author

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  • Indrani chakraborty

    (Indrani Chakraborty is Associate Professor, Institute of Development Studies Kolkata, Calcutta University, Alipore Campus, 1 Reformatory Street, 5th Floor, Kolkata-700027. Email: indrani.c61@gmail.com)

Abstract

This article examines whether financial development has ‘caused’ economic growth in India since 1996. The dynamic interactions between the growth of real Gross Domestic Product and indicators of financial development are investigated using the concept of Granger Causality after testing for cointegration using both the Engle-Granger and Johansen techniques. The ADF test for cointegration proposed by Gregory and Hansen (1996) reveals that there has been both the level shift and regime shift in the specifications relating economic growth and financial development. The empirical results obtained by the Johansen method and ADF test suggest the existence of a stable long-run relationship between stock market capitalization, bank credit and growth rate of real GDP. The growth rate of real GDP is also found to be cointegrated with financial depth. However, causality runs from the growth rate of real GDP to stock market capitalization. The sector-wise rates of growth of the industrial and services sectors are found to be cointegrated with the stock market development as well as banking sector development and financial depth. The direction of causality for both the sectors runs from the rate of growth to stock market capitalization. We also observe that financial depth causes industrial growth and causality runs in both directions between bank credit and industrial growth. Furthermore, volatility in stock prices is cointegrated with each growth rate—of GDP, of industrial sector output and of the service sector output. The article establishes that, in an overall sense, economic growth has ‘caused’ financial development in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Indrani chakraborty, 2008. "Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? The Case of India," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 9(1), pages 109-139, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:9:y:2008:i:1:p:109-139
    DOI: 10.1177/139156140700900105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Magda Kandil & Muhammad Shahbaz & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2017. "The drivers of economic growth in China and India: globalization or financial development?," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 54-84, April.
    2. Sani Ibrahim, Saifullahi & Tanimu, Nuruddeen, 2015. "The Linkages between Trade Openness, Financial Openness and Economic Growth in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 87494, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Aug 2016.
    3. Hui Wang & Huifang Liu, 2017. "An Empirical Research of FDI Spillovers and Financial Development Threshold Effects in Different Regions of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-21, June.
    4. Ho, Sin-Yu & Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Empirical Reassessment of Bank-based Financial Development and Economic Growth in Hong Kong," MPRA Paper 78920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ashenafi Beyene Fanta, 2015. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Emerging Markets," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 7(6), pages 13-23.
    6. Fanta Ashenafi Beyene & Makina Daniel, 2016. "The Finance Growth Link: Comparative Analysis of Two Eastern African Countries," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 19(3), pages 147-167, September.
    7. K. Siva Kiran Guptha & R. Prabhakar Rao, 2018. "The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth: an experience with BRICS economies," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 20(2), pages 308-326, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL: F43; JEL: C32; Financial Development; Economic Growth; Cointegration; Market Capitalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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