IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/soueco/v20y2019i1p70-93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

India–China Trade: Asymmetrical Developments and Future Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Sunandan Ghosh
  • Manmohan Agarwal
  • Adrita Banerjee

Abstract

This article seeks to provide an overview of the evolution and analyses the changing composition of trade between India and China over the period 1983–2017. We find that Chinese exports are almost completely concentrated in manufactures, especially finished equipment goods, whereas Indian exports consist of both agriculture and manufactures and over time have shifted predominantly to intermediate goods. Further, both the countries are exporting those commodities to each other in which they have a revealed comparative advantage, with China’s exports being more diversified. We employ vector error correction estimation and show that China’s exports to India are dependent on India’s household consumption expenditure, while India’ exports to China are correlated to Chinese manufacturing value added. Finally, we calculate the share of each country’s commodity-wise export to the partner in their respective total exports with a view to studying prospects for India–China trade. We conclude that for further trade expansion, diversification is extremely necessary, and Indian exports of inputs to Chinese industries need to change substantially to accommodate the changing nature of China’s industrial structure. JEL: F14, F15, O24

Suggested Citation

  • Sunandan Ghosh & Manmohan Agarwal & Adrita Banerjee, 2019. "India–China Trade: Asymmetrical Developments and Future Prospects," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 20(1), pages 70-93, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:20:y:2019:i:1:p:70-93
    DOI: 10.1177/1391561419840137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1391561419840137
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1391561419840137?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2011. "China and India: Openness, Trade and Effects on Economic Growth," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 129-154, June.
    3. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Guanghua Wan, 2008. "Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1327-1350, October.
    4. Wu, Yanrui & Zhou, Zhangyue, 2006. "Changing bilateral trade between China and India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 509-518, June.
    5. Stephen A. Rhoades, 1993. "The Herfindahl-Hirschman index," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Mar, pages 188-189.
    6. Balassa, Bela, 1977. "'Revealed' Comparative Advantage Revisited: An Analysis of Relative Export Shares of the Industrial Countries, 1953-1971," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 45(4), pages 327-344, December.
    7. Przemyslaw Kowalski, "undated". "China and India: A Tale of Two Trade Integration Approaches," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 221, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    8. Przemyslaw Kowalski, 2008. "China and India - A Tale of Two Trade Integration Approaches," Trade Working Papers 22170, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    10. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    11. V. N. Balasubramanyam & Yingqi Wei, 2005. "Textiles and clothing exports from india and china: a comparative analysis," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 23-37.
    12. Swapan K. Bhattacharya & Biswanath Bhattacharyay, 2007. "Gains and Losses of India-China Trade Cooperation – a Gravity Model Impact Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1970, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bagaria, Nidhi & Santra, Swarup & Kumar, Rajesh, 2014. "A study on variation in comparative advantage in trade between China and India," MPRA Paper 53287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hongzhong Fan & Md Ismail Hossain & Mollah Aminul Islam & Yassin Elshain Yahia, 2019. "The Impact of Trade, Technology and Growth on Environmental Deterioration of China and India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, January.
    3. Hongzhong Fan & Md Ismail Hossain, 2018. "Technological Innovation, Trade Openness, CO2 Emission and Economic Growth: Comparative Analysis between China and India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 240-257.
    4. Kumar, Nikeel Nishkar & Patel, Arvind, 2023. "Nonlinear effect of air travel tourism demand on economic growth in Fiji," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. John Bailey Jones & Sohini Sahu, 2017. "Transition accounting for India in a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 299-339, November.
    6. Onyango, Christopher H., 2010. "Liberalization of Services and its Implications on Cross-Border Agricultural Trade in Eastern Africa," Conference papers 332028, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    8. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    9. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    10. Karakotsios, Achillefs & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Kroupis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between food prices and oil prices. Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    11. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2022. "Structural change tests under heteroskedasticity: Joint estimation versus two‐steps methods," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 389-411, May.
    12. Altaf Muhammad & Zhang Shuguang, 2015. "Impact Of Structural Shifts on Variance Persistence in Asymmetric Garch Models: Evidence From Emerging Asian and European Markets," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(1), pages 57-70, March.
    13. Guo, Zhichao & Feng, Yuanhua, 2013. "Modeling of the impact of the financial crisis and China's accession to WTO on China's exports to Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 474-483.
    14. László KÓNYA, 2023. "Per Capita Income Convergence and Divergence of Selected OECD Countries to and from the US: A Reappraisal for the period 1900-2018," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(1), pages 33-56.
    15. Umar, Muhammad & Su, Chi-Wei & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2021. "Driven by fundamentals or exploded by emotions: Detecting bubbles in oil prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    16. Bertrand Groslambert & Raphaël Chiappini & Olivier Bruno, 2015. "Bank Output Calculation in the Case of France: What Do New Methods Tell About the Financial Intermediation Services in the Aftermath of the Crisis?," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-32, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    17. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    18. Chang, Bi-Juan & Hung, Mao-Wei, 2021. "Corporate debt and cash decisions: A nonlinear panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 15-37.
    19. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    20. Felix Pretis & Michael Mann & Robert Kaufmann, 2015. "Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 705-718, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    India–China trade; commodity concentration; revealed comparative advantage; vector error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:20:y:2019:i:1:p:70-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ips.lk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.