IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/sagope/v13y2023i4p21582440231215983.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Sustainability and Its Implications for Economic Growth in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Bayan Mohamad Alshaib
  • Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al khatib
  • Alina Cristina Nuta
  • Mohamad Hamra
  • Pradeep Mishra
  • Rajani Gautam
  • Sarfraz Hussain
  • Cristina Gabriela Zamfir

Abstract

This study examines the association between fiscal sustainability indicators and Egypt’s economic growth from 1980 to 2018. Fiscal sustainability refers to a government’s ability to generate sufficient revenue to cover its costs and debt obligations in the long run without excessive borrowing or money creation. Egypt’s economic growth has slowed, raising questions about fiscal sustainability. This study aimed to analyze the dynamic relationship between fiscal sustainability indicators (government revenue, expenditure, external debt) and economic growth in Egypt. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and unrestricted error correction model were applied to annual data from 1980 to 2018. A dynamic link was found between fiscal sustainability indicators and economic growth. Government expenditure and external debt significantly impacted economic expansion in the long term, while government revenue did not. Fiscal sustainability, measured by growth in total government expenses, external debt obligations, and revenue, significantly influences Egypt’s economic growth. Prudent fiscal management is crucial for sustained economic development. Policymakers should focus on controlling government spending, limiting external debt, and improving revenue generation to promote long-term economic growth in Egypt. Fiscal sustainability must balance critical investments in public services. Carefully managing fiscal deficits is key to unleashing Egypt’s economic potential. This study provides valuable insights into the connection between fiscal policy and economic growth in Egypt, informing policymakers’ decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayan Mohamad Alshaib & Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al khatib & Alina Cristina Nuta & Mohamad Hamra & Pradeep Mishra & Rajani Gautam & Sarfraz Hussain & Cristina Gabriela Zamfir, 2023. "Fiscal Sustainability and Its Implications for Economic Growth in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:13:y:2023:i:4:p:21582440231215983
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440231215983
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21582440231215983
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/21582440231215983?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    2. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    3. Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali & Shabir Ahmad, 2021. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    4. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    5. Tari Lestari, 2014. "Can Indonesia’s Fiscal Policy be Sustained, with Exploding Debt?," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201415, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2014.
    6. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 359-368, February.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Ioana-Laura Țibulcă, 2021. "Debt Sustainability: Can EU Member States Use Environmental Taxes to Regain Fiscal Space?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, May.
    11. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    12. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
    13. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 713-713, June.
    14. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    15. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    16. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    17. Cheryl Gray & Tracey Lane & Aristomene Varoudakis, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth : Lessons for Eastern Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6883.
    18. Zeeshan, Muhammad & han, Jiabin & Rehman, Alam & Ullah, Irfan & Hussain, Arif & Alam Afridi, Fakhr E., 2022. "Exploring symmetric and asymmetric nexus between corruption, political instability, natural resources and economic growth in the context of Pakistan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    20. Manuel Benazić, 2006. "Fiscal Policy And Economic Activity In The Republic Of Croatia: A Cointegration Analysis," Ekonomski pregled, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists), vol. 57(12), pages 882-917.
    21. Wu, Shih-Ying & Tang, Jenn-Hong & Lin, Eric S., 2010. "The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: How sensitive to the level of development?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 804-817, November.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    23. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    24. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    25. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    26. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    27. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    28. Ge Gao & Xiuting Li & Xiaoting Liu & Jichang Dong, 2021. "Does Air Pollution Impact Fiscal Sustainability? Evidence from Chinese Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    29. Dagwom Yohanna Dang, 2013. "Revenue Allocation and Economic Development in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 3(3), pages 21582440135, September.
    30. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    31. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 89-105, May.
    32. Maki, Daiki, 2012. "Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2011-2015.
    33. Ola Al Sayed & Ashraf Samir & Heba Hesham Anwar, 2021. "Assessing fiscal sustainability in Egypt: a comparative study," Review of Economics and Political Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 292-310, August.
    34. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    35. Abdulaziz H. Algaeed, 2022. "Government Spending Volatility and Real Economic Growth: Evidence From a Major Oil Producing Country, Saudi Arabia, 1970 to 2018," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    36. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    37. Georgios Karras & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Taxes and Growth in Europe," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 7(2), pages 181-204.
    38. Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 2000/081, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
    40. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    41. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 697-712, June.
    42. Dimitrios Asteriou & Keith Pilbeam & Cecilia Eny Pratiwi, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth: panel data evidence for Asian countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 270-287, April.
    43. Alina Cristina Nuta & Florian Marcel Nuta & Viorica Chirila & Angela Roman & Andy Corneliu Pusca, 2015. "Testing the Relationship between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(4), pages 86-102, August.
    44. Ibrahim M. Awad & Ghada K. Al-Jerashi & Zaid Ahmad Alabaddi, 2021. "Determinants of private domestic investment in Palestine: time series analysis," Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(1), pages 71-86, June.
    45. Alina-Cristina Nuță & Florian-Marcel Nuță, 2020. "Modelling the Influences of Economic, Demographic, and Institutional Factors on Fiscal Pressure Using OLS, PCSE, and FD-GMM Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-12, February.
    46. Elena Cigu & Mihai-Bogdan Petrișor & Alina-Cristina Nuță & Florian-Marcel Nuță & Ionel Bostan, 2020. "The Nexus between Financial Regulation and Green Sustainable Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-15, October.
    47. Chang, Hsin-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin Wei, 2011. "Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2416-2423.
    48. Rose, Shanna, 2010. "Institutions and Fiscal Sustainability," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 63(4), pages 807-837, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ning Han & Huiyan Guo & Weitao Diao, 2024. "Spatial Interaction of Local Government Debt: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-20, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pourazarm, Elham & Cooray, Arusha, 2013. "Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 546-558.
    2. Md. Shahiduzzaman & Khorshed Alam, 2014. "A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: the case of Australia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 323-344, April.
    3. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    4. Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: A tale of three countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 52-60.
    5. Khorshed Chowdhury, 2011. "Dynamics, Structural Breaks and the Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate of Australia," Economics Working Papers wp11-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    6. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, April.
    7. Heidari, Hassan & Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Davoudi, Narmin, 2012. "Are current account deficits sustainable? New evidence from Iran using bounds test approach to level relationships," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-18.
    8. Ufuk CAN & Zeynep Gizem CAN & Süleyman DEĞİRMEN, 2019. "Paranın Dolaşım Hızının ve Para Talebi Fonksiyonunun Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(2), pages 218-247, November.
    9. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    10. Monojit Chatterji & Homagni Choudhury, 2010. "The Changing Inter-Industry Wage Structure of the Organised Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973-74 to 2003-04," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 244, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    11. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    13. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Working Papers 0103, Banco de España.
    14. Verma, R. & Wilson, E.J., 2005. "A Multivariate Analysis of Savings, Investment, and Growth in India," Economics Working Papers wp05-24, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    15. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2016. "Structural breaks and monetary dynamics: A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 133-143.
    16. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    17. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    19. Verma, R. & Wilson, E.J., 2005. "Savings, Investment, Foreign Inflows and Economic Growth of the Indian Economy 1950-2001," Economics Working Papers wp05-23, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    20. Shane Brittle, 2010. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 254-269, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:13:y:2023:i:4:p:21582440231215983. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.