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Bayesian linear inspection planning for large-scale physical systems

Author

Listed:
  • D Randell
  • M Goldstein
  • G Hardman
  • P Jonathan

Abstract

Modelling of complex corroding industrial systems is critical to effective inspection and maintenance for assurance of system integrity. Wall thickness and corrosion rate are modelled for multiple dependent corroding components, given observations of minimum wall thickness per component. At each inspection, partial observations of the system are considered. A Bayes linear approach is adopted simplifying parameter estimation and avoiding often unrealistic distributional assumptions. Key system variances are modelled, making exchangeability assumptions to facilitate analysis for sparse inspection time series. A utility-based criterion is used to assess quality of inspection design and aid decision making. The model is applied to inspection data from pipework networks on a full-scale offshore platform.

Suggested Citation

  • D Randell & M Goldstein & G Hardman & P Jonathan, 2010. "Bayesian linear inspection planning for large-scale physical systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(4), pages 333-345, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:224:y:2010:i:4:p:333-345
    DOI: 10.1243/1748006XJRR322
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kallen, M.J. & van Noortwijk, J.M., 2005. "Optimal maintenance decisions under imperfect inspection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 177-185.
    2. Jørund Gåsemyr & Bent Natvig, 2001. "Bayesian inference based on partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(7), pages 551-577, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Shenwei & Zhou, Wenxing, 2014. "Bayesian dynamic linear model for growth of corrosion defects on energy pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 24-31.

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