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PAYG Pensions and Economic Cycles

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  • Luciano Fanti
  • Luca Gori

Abstract

In this article we compare the dynamics and long-run outcomes of an overlapping generations closed economy under exogenous and endogenous fertility. Individuals have myopic foresight, and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) public pensions exist. Although large PAYG transfers may cause endogenous fluctuations in both contexts, cyclical instability and deterministic chaos more likely occur when fertility is an economic decision variable. We find that the existence of endogenous fertility and PAYG pensions can explain the occurrence of demographic oscillations that mimic the baby boom and baby bust, in contrast with the unrealistic case of constant population, and also economic cycles. We also show that an increase in the social security contribution rate under endogenous fertility, often advocated as a remedy against the crisis of public pension budgets, may prolong both the phases and size of demographic (economic) cycles around a lower (higher) long-run level of population growth (income per worker) than under exogenous fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "PAYG Pensions and Economic Cycles," Public Finance Review, , vol. 40(2), pages 240-269, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:40:y:2012:i:2:p:240-269
    DOI: 10.1177/1091142111422435
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    Cited by:

    1. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Endogenous Lifetime in an Overlapping-Generations Small Open Economy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(2), pages 121-152, June.
    2. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2011. "On economic growth and minimum wages," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 103(1), pages 59-82, May.
    3. Don H. Chamberlain & L. Murphy Smith & Randall B. Bunker, 2016. "An examination of US state pensions by total state expenditures, state budget deficit and red v. blue state," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 27-44.
    4. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Child policy solutions for the unemployment problem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 147-149, December.
    5. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Longevity, fertility and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Discussion Papers 2009/77, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of health and child policies," Discussion Papers 2009/91, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demoeconomic fluctuations; myopic foresight; PAYG pensions; stability; OLG model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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