IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/psydev/v29y2017i1p98-123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Fears in Ukrainian Society

Author

Listed:
  • Sviatoslav R. Rybnikov
  • Natalya A. Rybnikova
  • Boris A. Portnov

Abstract

Numerous experimental studies have revealed that two statistical measures of biological populations—(a) the correlation between certain parameters of their members and (b) the dispersion of theses parameters—simultaneously increase under stress conditions. Later on, this effect was confirmed also for financial systems. In our study we tested the applicability of these two stress-indicating statistical measures to Ukrainian society. We examined the prolonged stress period preceding the 2014 Ukrainian economic and political crisis. We considered the dynamics of 19 major public fears which got spread in the Ukrainian society during this period: of economic regress, of breakdown of the state, of losing sovereignty, etc. The study revealed that there was a simultaneous increase in the total correlation between the fears (by about 64 per cent) and also in their statistical dispersion (by 29 per cent) during the pre-crisis years. It is suggested that these measures may be a useful tool for monitoring stress onset and for possible steps that can be taken to prevent societal crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Sviatoslav R. Rybnikov & Natalya A. Rybnikova & Boris A. Portnov, 2017. "Public Fears in Ukrainian Society," Psychology and Developing Societies, , vol. 29(1), pages 98-123, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:psydev:v:29:y:2017:i:1:p:98-123
    DOI: 10.1177/0971333616689398
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0971333616689398
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0971333616689398?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. N. Gorban & E. V. Smirnova & T. A. Tyukina, 2009. "Correlations, Risk and Crisis: From Physiology to Finance," Papers 0905.0129, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2010.
    2. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    3. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    4. Gorban, Alexander N. & Smirnova, Elena V. & Tyukina, Tatiana A., 2010. "Correlations, risk and crisis: From physiology to finance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(16), pages 3193-3217.
    5. Albers, Scott, 2012. "Predicting crises: Five essays on the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises," MPRA Paper 43484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    2. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Gruber & Isabella Moder, 2014. "Using a Threshold Approach to Flag Vulnerabilities in CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-30.
    6. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    7. Mariano Roberto S & Gultekin Bulent N & Ozmucur Suleyman & Shabbir Tayyeb & Alper C. Emre, 2004. "Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-21, August.
    8. Fuat SEKMEN & Murat KURKCU, 2014. "An Early Warning System for Turkey: The Forecasting Of Economic Crisis by Using the Artificial Neural Networks," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 529-543, April.
    9. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    10. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 2003/223, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Pham, Thi Hoang Anh, 2017. "Are global shocks leading indicators of currency crisis in Viet Nam?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 605-615.
    12. Mohana Rao BALAGA & Puja PADHI, 2017. "Evaluating Indian economy’s vulnerability to currency crisis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 97-114, Autumn.
    13. Cristian Stanciu, 2012. "The Financial Crisis And The Early Warning System Models," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 3(40), pages 67-80.
    14. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
    15. Shuhua Liu & Christer K. Lindholm, 2006. "Assessing early warning signals of currency crises: a fuzzy clustering approach," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 179-202, October.
    16. Xing, Kai & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2020. "Predicting default rates by capturing critical transitions in the macroeconomic system," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    17. Chong, Terence T.L. & Yan, Isabel K., 2018. "Forecasting currency crises with threshold models," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 156-174.
    18. Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
    19. Giuseppe Orlando & Giovanna Zimatore, 2021. "Recurrence Quantification Analysis of Business Cycles," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Giuseppe Orlando & Alexander N. Pisarchik & Ruedi Stoop (ed.), Nonlinearities in Economics, chapter 0, pages 269-282, Springer.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:psydev:v:29:y:2017:i:1:p:98-123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.