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A Mathematical Model for Timing Repeated Medical Tests

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  • David M. Eddy

Abstract

This paper presents a mathematical model that can be used to estimate the clinical and economic outcomes of monitoring patients with periodic examinations. The model can compare the consequences of monitoring for different disorders, with different tests, at different frequencies. The paper describes formulas that incorporate information about the incidence and natural history of disorders, the effectiveness of tests, the effectiveness of treatment, and the order and frequency of monitoring, to calculate the probability of detecting a disorder, the method and timing of detection, the earliness (e.g., stage) with which a disorder is detected, and the clinical and economic outcomes. The application of the model is described through a hypothetical example. The model has been used to analyze several cancer screening problems involving multiple disorders and multiple tests. (Med Decis Making 3:45-62, 1983).

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Eddy, 1983. "A Mathematical Model for Timing Repeated Medical Tests," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 3(1), pages 45-62, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:3:y:1983:i:1:p:45-62
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8300300111
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Parmigiani & Steven Skates & Marvin Zelen, 2002. "Modeling and Optimization in Early Detection Programs with a Single Exam," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 30-36, March.
    2. Yi-Shu Lin & James F O’Mahony & Joost Rosmalen, 2023. "A Simple Cost-Effectiveness Model of Screening: An Open-Source Teaching and Research Tool Coded in R," PharmacoEconomics - Open, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 507-523, July.
    3. John C. Hershey & Randall D. Cebul & Sankey V. Williams, 1986. "Clinical Guidelines for Using Two Dichotomous Tests," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 6(2), pages 68-78, June.

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