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Decisive Evidence on a Smaller-Than-You-Think Phenomenon

Author

Listed:
  • Miroslav Sirota
  • Marie Juanchich
  • Olga Kostopoulou
  • Robert Hanak

Abstract

Accurate perception of medical probabilities communicated to patients is a cornerstone of informed decision making. People, however, are prone to biases in probability perception. Recently, Pighin and others extended the list of such biases with evidence that “1-in-X†ratios (e.g., “1 in 12†) led to greater perceived probability and worry about health outcomes than “N-in-X*N†ratios (e.g., “10 in 120†). Subsequently, the recommendation was to avoid using “1-in-X†ratios when communicating probabilistic information to patients. To warrant such a recommendation, we conducted 5 well-powered replications and synthesized the available data. We found that 3 out of the 5 replications yielded statistically nonsignificant findings. In addition, our results showed that the “1-in-X†effect was not moderated by numeracy, cognitive reflection, age, or gender. To quantify the evidence for the effect, we conducted a Bayes factor meta-analysis and a traditional meta-analysis of our 5 studies and those of Pighin and others (11 comparisons, N = 1131). The meta-analytical Bayes factor, which allowed assessment of the evidence for the null hypothesis, was very low, providing decisive evidence to support the existence of the “1-in-X†effect. The traditional meta-analysis showed that the overall effect was significant (Hedges’ g = 0.42, 95% CI 0.29–0.54). Overall, we provide decisive evidence for the existence of the “1-in-X†effect but suggest that it is smaller than previously estimated. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslav Sirota & Marie Juanchich & Olga Kostopoulou & Robert Hanak, 2014. "Decisive Evidence on a Smaller-Than-You-Think Phenomenon," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 34(4), pages 419-429, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:34:y:2014:i:4:p:419-429
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X13514776
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefania Pighin & Lucia Savadori & Elisa Barilli & Laura Cremonesi & Maurizio Ferrari & Jean-François Bonnefon, 2011. "The 1-in-X Effect on the Subjective Assessment of Medical Probabilities," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(5), pages 721-729, September.
    2. Hsee, Christopher K., 1996. "The Evaluability Hypothesis: An Explanation for Preference Reversals between Joint and Separate Evaluations of Alternatives," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 247-257, September.
    3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:6:p:436-446 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:3:y:2008:i::p:-416 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Suk, Kwanho & Hwang, Sanyoung & Jeong, Yunjoo, 2022. "The 1-in-X effect in perceptions of risk likelihood differences," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:1:p:215-237 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Yun Jie, 2022. "Frequency or total number? A comparison of different presentation formats on risk perception during COVID-19," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 17(1), pages 215-237, January.

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