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Decision Analysis for lower-third-molar Surgery

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  • Mark Brickley
  • Elizabeth Kay
  • Jonathan P. Shepherd
  • Rosemary A. Armstrong

Abstract

The objective of the study was to identify those factors that should affect treatment planning for patients who have lower third molars, using decision-analytic techniques. Utility values based on data from 104 patients indicated that the respondents considered that postoperative complications (except mild pain and temporary paresthesia) reduced health to a greater degree than did complications following non-intervention. A decision analysis indicated that the maximum expected utility of prophylactic third-molar surgery (60.25) was lower than that for non-intervention (76.96). The decision was sensitive to changes in the probabilities of occurrence of recurrent pericoronitis (threshold = 0.52), resorption of an adjacent tooth (threshold = 0.29), loss of an adjacent tooth (threshold = 0.32), and cystic change (threshold = 0.34). These thresholds are much higher than the incidence of problems affecting the lower third molar shown by a concurrent clinical audit and literature review. This study therefore suggests that lower third molars should not be removed prophylactically. Key words: decision analysis; utility values; third molar surgery. (Med Decis Making 1995;15:143-151)

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Brickley & Elizabeth Kay & Jonathan P. Shepherd & Rosemary A. Armstrong, 1995. "Decision Analysis for lower-third-molar Surgery," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 15(2), pages 143-151, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:15:y:1995:i:2:p:143-151
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9501500207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Torrance, George W., 1986. "Measurement of health state utilities for economic appraisal : A review," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, March.
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