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Hypothesis Generation and the Coordination of Theory and Evidence in Novice Diagnostic Reasoning

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  • José F. Arocha
  • Vimla L. Patel
  • Yogesh C. Patel

Abstract

This study investigates hypothesis generation and evaluation in clinical problem solving by medical trainees. The study focuses on 1) directionality of reasoning and 2) use of confir mation and disconfirmation strategies in generating and evaluating hypotheses. Two clinical problems were divided into segments of information containing presenting complaint, past history, and physical examination. The initial information indicated a typical myocardial infarct but subsequent information contradicted it. The results showed that the participating students predominantly used forward reasoning and confirmation strategies. When faced with con tradictory evidence: 1) second-year students ignored cues in the problem or reinterpreted them to fit the hypothesis; 2) third-year students generated concurrent hypotheses to account for different sets of data; and 3) fourth-year students generated several initial hypotheses and subsequently narrowed the hypothesis space by generating a single coherent diagnostic explanation. The results are discussed in terms of coordination of clinical evidence and its relationship to scientific reasoning. Key words: hypothesis generation; diagnostic reasoning; novice strategies; medical problem solving. (Med Decis Making 1993;13:198-211)

Suggested Citation

  • José F. Arocha & Vimla L. Patel & Yogesh C. Patel, 1993. "Hypothesis Generation and the Coordination of Theory and Evidence in Novice Diagnostic Reasoning," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 13(3), pages 198-211, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:13:y:1993:i:3:p:198-211
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9301300305
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    Cited by:

    1. Backlund, Lars & Skaner, Ylva & Montgomery, Henry & Bring, Johan & Strender, Lars-Erik, 2003. "Doctors' decision processes in a drug-prescription task: The validity of rating scales and think-aloud reports," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 108-117, May.
    2. Romy Müller & Franziska Kessler & David W. Humphrey & Julian Rahm, 2021. "Data in Context: How Digital Transformation Can Support Human Reasoning in Cyber-Physical Production Systems," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-36, June.

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